The timing of the coup against Keir Starmer has helped one leadership hopeful more than anybody else – Wes Streeting. On Monday night, as Labour MP after Labour MP joined the growing list of people calling for the prime minister to resign, it became clear there was a pattern emerging. The roll call of names was not dominated by MPs from the perpetually disgruntled left of the party – the usual suspects who have never liked Starmer. Instead, many were from the right of the party and, in particular, were allies of Mr Streeting.
It is probably no accident that the two cabinet ministers telling Sir Keir that his time is up were home secretary Shabana Mahmood and foreign secretary Yvette Cooper, both from the right of the party. The speed of events unfolding, though, appears to be designed to ensure Mr Streeting is the obvious and only serious candidate who can stand. There must be a hope of a coronation.
Great Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, the favourite to replace Sir Keir, is still unable to stand because he is not an MP. Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, is likely to run and would be considered a favourite because of her support on the soft left. But the timing is not ideal for her. She still has serious questions over her tax affairs to resolve. Meanwhile, other names including Ms Mahmood, energy secretary Ed Miliband and defence minister Al Carns, are fringe candidates at best in terms of their support.
From the moment that Chris Curtis, chair of the Labour growth group who is seen as a close ally of the health secretary, publicly called for Sir Keir to go, this was obviously a push to put Mr Streeting into Westminster. But the timing cannot purely be pinned on Mr Streeting and his allies. Events have taken their own course.
The shock intervention by former foreign minister Catherine West over the weekend was helpful to Mr Streeting, but not part of the plan. When she announced she would run as a candidate, it effectively tore up everybody else’s plans. In particular, it wrecked the hopes of those on the left that wanted a way for Mr Burnham to come back and become leader.
The other part of the timing was down to the PM himself. His speech on Monday morning offered no new vision, no new policies and just repeated a series of cliches which inflamed an already fevered situation. This, on top of giving an interview where he suggested he was going to be PM for a decade. Instead of quietening his critics, Sir Keir managed to anger his MPs further and they decided enough was enough.
But Mr Streeting will not get a coronation, even if his supporters hope for it. It is likely Ms Rayner or Mr Miliband will run against him and probably win. But the door has been opened to what will likely turn into a bloody civil war in the party. Ironically, it was Sir Keir’s actions in getting the national executive committee (NEC) to block Mr Burnham standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election that may have left the party without the unifying candidate to take on Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski. That could end up being the prime minister’s worst and most enduring legacy – especially if it ends with Mr Farage standing at the steps of Number 10.
