A stark new study has concluded that New Orleans has reached a 'point of no return' and will likely be surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico before the end of this century due to the climate crisis. The paper, published in Nature Sustainability, warns that ongoing sea-level rise and rampant erosion of wetlands in southern Louisiana will swallow the area within a few generations.
Southern Louisiana faces 3-7 metres of sea-level rise and the loss of three-quarters of its remaining coastal wetlands, causing the shoreline to migrate as much as 100km inland. This would strand New Orleans and Baton Rouge, making the region the 'most physically vulnerable coastal zone in the world', according to the researchers.
Jesse Keenan, an expert in climate adaptation at Tulane University and co-author of the study, said: 'In paleo-climate terms, New Orleans is gone; the question is how long it has.' He added that even if climate change stopped today, the city's days are numbered due to its below-sea-level location.
The study calls for immediate action to plan a smooth transition for people away from New Orleans, which has a population of about 360,000. Billions have been spent on levees and floodgates since Hurricane Katrina, but the paper warns these will not save the city in the long run.
Keenan urged city, state and federal leaders to begin supporting relocation, starting with the most vulnerable communities. 'New Orleans is in a terminal condition, and we need to be clear with the patient that it is terminal,' he said. 'There is an opportunity for palliative care, we can transition people and the economy.'
