Large swathes of Europe's water reserves are drying up, according to a new analysis of two decades of satellite data. Scientists at University College London (UCL), working with Watershed Investigations and the Guardian, found that freshwater storage is shrinking across southern and central Europe, from Spain and Italy to Poland and parts of the UK.
The study used data from 2002 to 2024 from satellites that track changes in Earth's gravitational field. Because water is heavy, shifts in groundwater, rivers, lakes, soil moisture and glaciers show up in the signal, allowing the satellites to effectively 'weigh' how much water is stored. The findings reveal a stark imbalance: northern and northwestern Europe, particularly Scandinavia, parts of the UK and Portugal, have been getting wetter, while large areas of the south and southeast, including parts of the UK, Spain, Italy, France, Switzerland, Germany, Romania and Ukraine, have been drying out.
Professor Mohammad Shamsudduha of UCL said the trends broadly correlate with climate datasets, calling it a 'wake-up call' for politicians still sceptical about cutting emissions. 'We're no longer talking about limiting warming to 1.5C, we're likely heading toward 2C above preindustrial levels, and we're now witnessing the consequences,' he said. Doctoral researcher Arifin isolated groundwater storage from the total data and found that trends in these more resilient water bodies mirrored the overall picture, confirming that much of Europe's hidden freshwater reserves are being depleted.
In the UK, trends are mixed: the west is getting wetter while the east is becoming drier, a signal that is strengthening. Although total rainfall may be stable or slightly increasing, the pattern is changing, with heavier downpours and longer dry spells, especially in summer. In southeast England, where groundwater supplies about 70% of public water, these shifting rainfall patterns could pose serious challenges. The Environment Agency has already warned England to prepare for drought continuing into 2026 unless there is significant rain over autumn and winter.
Across the EU, groundwater abstractions increased by 6% between 2000 and 2022, attributed to public water supply (18%) and farming (17%). Groundwater accounted for 62% of the total public water supply and 33% of agricultural water demands in 2022. A European Commission spokesperson said its water resilience strategy aims to help member states adapt to climate change and address man-made pressures, with a recommendation to improve water efficiency by at least 10% until 2030.
Professor Hannah Cloke of the University of Reading said it is 'distressing' to see the long-term trend, warning that if rainfall is insufficient next spring and summer, there will be severe consequences for England, including water restrictions. Water minister Emma Hardy acknowledged increasing pressure on water resources and said the government is taking decisive action, including developing nine new reservoirs to help secure long-term water resilience.
