European leaders are mounting a concerted diplomatic effort to secure a positive outcome for Ukraine, as concerns grow over US President Donald Trump's push for a swift settlement with Russia. This initiative seeks to prevent a peace deal that could fatally compromise Ukrainian sovereignty and European security.
A London Summit Against an Unpromising Backdrop
The recent talks in London, hosted by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, brought together key European figures. President Emmanuel Macron of France and Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday 7 December 2025. Their core mission was to reaffirm unwavering support for Kyiv and to strategise on ensuring Ukraine is not abandoned by its American allies.
This high-stakes meeting occurred amidst a deeply worrying shift in US policy. The official United States National Security Strategy now explicitly aims to weaken democratically elected liberal European governments and undermine the European Union. Instead of treating Europe as a partner of equals, the Trump administration appears to favour a model akin to Hungary's relationship with Washington.
The Trump Factor and European Fears
President Trump's long-held desire to normalise relations with Russia and explore post-war economic opportunities casts a long shadow over negotiations. European capitals fear this could lead to America completely abandoning Ukraine, relaxing sanctions on Moscow, or imposing a deal almost entirely on the Kremlin's terms.
These suspicions were starkly illustrated in a leaked phone call between Presidents Macron, Zelensky, Alexander Stubb of Finland, and Chancellor Merz. The European leaders' explicit fear was metaphorically summarised as: "we must not leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these guys."
The European objective has now starkly shifted. With Trump's election victory last year, the policy of insisting on a full Russian withdrawal from sovereign Ukrainian territory is no longer viable. The focus is now on limiting Russian gains and maximising Ukrainian and European security.
The Path Forward: Security Guarantees and Coalition Diplomacy
European strategy now centres on two non-negotiable points. First, President Putin must not be allowed to simply annex the Ukrainian territories his forces currently occupy. Second, if Kyiv is pressured into concessions, it must receive nothing less than NATO-style 'Article 5' security guarantees from the United States, backed by an appropriate military presence and the maintenance of Ukraine's modern combat capacity.
A professional coalition of 'Trump whisperers' is being deployed to balance the influence of the Kremlin and Trump advisors like Jared Kushner and peace envoy Steve Witkoff. This group includes NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Sir Keir Starmer, President Stubb, and potentially Italy's Giorgia Meloni.
Sir Keir reportedly believes that Trump's exasperation with the Kremlin could ultimately lead him to resume aid to Ukraine and impose tighter sanctions on Russia, even extending to Putin-friendly powers like India and China. However, the equally plausible, and more dangerous, scenario is that Trump could leave Europe and Ukraine in an invidious position: accept a surrender deal or be left alone as America helps Russia rejoin the global economy.
The security of the European continent now uncomfortably rests on the competing vanities of world leaders. While Sir Keir, Macron, and Merz may not hold all the cards, their coordinated play in London represents a crucial attempt to steer the outcome, save Ukraine, and secure a stable future for the region.
