A crucial probe to find out who ordered a drone strike on a bus carrying young footballers could determine the fate of the Ukraine-Russia war. Conspiracy theories are swirling as to who chose to destroy the Rechytsa Youth Sports School's coach, an attack that could drag Belarus into the war raging across its border.
The football coach's wife was killed with six of the young footballers hurt as they were travelling from their hometown of Homiel to Russia's Gelendzhik on Wednesday. A swarm of drones were reportedly spotted descending on the team bus carrying 88 people to a holiday camp close to the frontlines of the conflict between Kyiv and Moscow.
The President of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenka, who is in a delicate balancing act between his friend Vladimir Putin and Ukraine, has demanded to know the truth behind the strike. 'If someone is provoking us and trying to drag us into the war, I think it will end badly for those who are trying to do this,' he said.
'We are behaving calmly. Some people do not like that Belarus is a peaceful state, and that is why all this is happening. We hear statements, justifications, and various versions. But we need the truth. And we are waiting for this truth or a real, fair, honest answer from Ukrainian state officials, military personnel, and people. In any case, we will establish the truth; it will not be a big problem,' he said.
Although Lukashenka says he is not rushing to draw any conclusions, at least according to him, the drone is of Ukrainian origin. But he did suggest it could have been purchased by bad actors and suggested children shouldn't leave Belarus without official permission.
Russia launched a terror investigation blaming Ukraine while Kyiv described the claim as 'an information provocation by the Kremlin'. Back home, Belarusian papers blasted Lukashenka's 24-hour late response, which was seen as a move to assuage Ukraine. Others even blamed the driver of the trip which had been privately organised by parents.
Dzmitry Aleinikau, deputy chairman of the Homiel Regional Executive Committee, blamed private contractors. 'The carriers selected a dangerous route that ran practically through a frontline area,' Aleinikau said.
Pro-government Telegram channel, the Belarusian Front, even suggested that independent media had known about the attack in advance, pointing to an article warning about the risks posed by drones in that area.
Political analyst Vital Tsygankou posed the thought the strike may have been a political move intended to worsen relations between Minsk and Kyiv something the Kremlin will benefit from. He added the strike will rock Belarusians who have been ignoring the conflict just outside its border.
'The people will realise that the war is actually very close,' he said. 'And it is clear that the Belarusian authorities want to avoid fueling panic above all else. The entire message of Belarusian propaganda is: "We have peaceful skies; nothing is happening here." But in this case, something is happening to Belarusians who have ventured only a little beyond the country's borders.'
Russia accused Ukraine of another drone attack on a bus which it said killed eight civilians and wounded 11 more in occupied Donetsk.
Vladimir Putin is said to be 'actively pressuring' Belarusian dictator Lukashenko to enter the war on his side, according to UK Defence Journal editor George Allison. At the same time, work on infrastructure which would be key to an invasion, like roads and artillery positions, has been ongoing in the former Soviet state along its border with northern Ukraine for months.
All this has sparked fears that Belarus, whose leader has been closely aligned with Putin for decades, is prepared to go beyond vocally supporting Russia to take an active part in the conflict.
Speaking from around 50 miles (70km) from the Belarusian border, Allison told Metro: 'Ukraine has warned repeatedly this year that Russia is building up military infrastructure in Belarus, including new roads and artillery positions along the northern border. Kyiv says Moscow has been actively pressuring Lukashenko to commit Belarusian forces to the conflict, and claims to have details of direct conversations between Putin and the Belarusian leader.'
Allison said Russia had already been using Belarusian territory to 'enhance' its drone operations against Ukraine.
