Apocalyptic forecasts are a national sport in France, but while polls point to a National Rally president in 2027, it is still all to play for, argues author Joseph de Weck. The present mood feels familiar, with fatalism a habit in the country, but French presidential elections rarely turn out as pundits predict a year in advance.
According to recent polls, the National Rally (RN) candidate – whether Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella – would win every plausible runoff, except against former prime minister Édouard Philippe. However, Philippe now faces an investigation over corruption accusations, and it is far from certain he will emerge as the centre-right candidate.
France's electorate has drifted so far to the right that a divided left faces an uphill battle. The decisive question could be whether leftwing voters can swallow their pride and vote for the centre-right candidate in the runoff. Philippe retains some credibility among leftwing voters, but many are tired of always choosing the lesser evil.
Parts of the non-far-right electorate seem almost to want the RN catastrophe to happen out of nihilism or a craving for spectacle. More often, it is resignation. French people at times resemble someone who, exhausted by fear of a burglar, eventually leaves the jewellery box on the doorstep.
De Weck notes that polls routinely overestimate RN support in presidential runoffs. In 2022, the average of polls within a year of the first round put Le Pen at 44.2%; she received 41.45%. In 2017, a similar average put her at 37.78%; she finished at 33.9%. The die is not yet cast, and the race remains wide open.
