The number of Russian and Ukrainian troops killed, wounded or missing in nearly four years of war could reach 2 million by this spring, according to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The Washington-based thinktank estimates Russia has suffered about 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 deaths, while close to 600,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed, wounded or gone missing.
Neither side has publicly disclosed comprehensive casualty figures since the full-scale invasion began. The Kremlin dismissed the CSIS report as “not credible”, insisting only the Russian defence ministry can release such data. The CSIS estimates were based on interviews with Western and Ukrainian officials, as well as data from the independent Russian outlet Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service.
By historical comparison, the losses are extraordinary. The thinktank noted that Russian battlefield fatalities in Ukraine were “more than 17 times greater than Soviet losses in Afghanistan during the 1980s, 11 times higher than during Russia’s first and second Chechen wars, and more than five times greater than all Russian and Soviet wars combined since the second world war”.
Russian casualties are estimated to exceed Ukrainian losses by roughly 2.5:1 or 2:1, the report says. However, Ukraine’s smaller population and limited capacity to absorb prolonged losses and mobilise troops paint a bleak picture. Moscow has turned to generous pay and benefits for new recruits, including enlistment bonuses worth tens of thousands of dollars, and has recruited thousands of men from Asia, South America and Africa.
Ukraine has struggled to mobilise enough troops, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy resisting calls to lower the mobilisation age below 25. Despite the scale of casualties, Russia’s territorial gains have remained marginal. CSIS found that since 2024, Russian forces advanced at an average rate of just 15 to 70 metres a day during their most prominent offensives, “slower than almost any major offensive campaign in modern warfare”.
According to data from the Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState, Russian forces captured 152 sq km of Ukrainian territory between 1 and 25 January, the slowest rate of advance since March last year. Russia, Ukraine and the US met in Abu Dhabi last weekend for peace talks, but there was no sign of a breakthrough.
