As the US prepares to sign a negotiation agreement on its Iran deal, we compare Trump's suggested settlement and the Obama document that he tore up — and the current one is worse in every way.
Background
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly compared his policy toward Iran to that of his predecessor Barack Obama. He has said the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action under the Obama administration was a “terrible deal,” suggesting it was a road to a “nuclear weapon.” But his ill-planned and disastrous war on Iran has smashed a wrecking ball through geopolitical relative stability, the world economy and cost thousands of lives.
Comparison of the Deals
This table shows a direct and stark comparison between Obama’s JCPOA and the results of Trump’s clumsy war on Iran, along with the likely outcome on any agreement. It has confirmed Tehran’s ability to hold global energy trade to ransom by closing the Strait of Hormuz and has left Iran emboldened and more aggressive than ever before. And we are further from a nuclear deal with Iran than before.
Obama's JCPOA
Obama’s JCPOA — torn up in 2018 by Trump — and supported by the UK, France and Germany, agreed on intrusive oversight of Iran’s nuclear programme. It was a landmark accord to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons in exchange for some economic relief from some of the heavy sanctions it was under.
Trump's Approach
What is believed to be Trump’s agreement amounts to a devastating and even bigger cave-in on sanctions relief and billions in reparations to Tehran. Much of which is said to be heading straight into the warchests of Tehran’s proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Yemeni Houthis. Israel may have found Obama’s JCPOA wrong because it did rely on Tehran cooperation but Tel Aviv and in fact most Israelis absolutely hate the Trump deal. It cuts Israel out of the negotiations and will, if adhered to, prevent it from attacking Hezbollah — something it is impossible to imagine Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreeing on.
Consequences
But it has also cost everybody in the west in hiked up fuel prices and it has left thousands of rebels in Iran facing death squads and torture for years. Trump promised them ‘help is on the way,’ and it was not and still is not. He has abandoned them tragically to a near-certain and horrific fate, having encouraged them to uprise and likely putting them even more at risk.
