Fact Check: Jim Ratcliffe's Claims on Population, Manufacturing and Emissions
Businessman and Manchester United co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe made several assertions during a recent Sky News interview, covering topics from energy costs to migration and the UK's economic landscape. While his comments sparked discussion, a closer examination reveals significant discrepancies between his statements and official data.
Manufacturing Decline Exaggerated
Ratcliffe claimed that UK manufacturing has "collapsed," stating that manufacturing accounted for 25% of GDP in 1995 compared to Germany's 25%, but has since fallen to 8% while Germany maintains 20-21%. World Bank data tells a different story. In 1995, manufacturing represented 15% of UK GDP and 20% in Germany. By 2024, the UK figure had indeed declined to 8%, but Germany's stood at 18%, not the 20-21% Ratcliffe suggested.
Looking at the broader industrial sector—which includes manufacturing, mining, construction, and utilities—the UK accounted for 24.5% of GDP in 1995 versus Germany's 29.3%. By 2024, these figures were 17.1% for the UK and 25.6% for Germany, indicating a decline but not the dramatic collapse described.
Benefits Claimants: Close but Inaccurate
Ratcliffe asserted that "you can't have an economy with nine million people on benefits." The most recent Department for Work and Pensions figures show 8.4 million people in Great Britain claiming Universal Credit as of December 2025. When combined with older Northern Ireland data showing 233,170 claimants in August 2025, the total reaches approximately 8.6 million—substantial but below the nine million threshold mentioned.
Population Growth Misrepresented
The businessman claimed the UK population was 58 million in 2020 and has since grown to 70 million, representing an increase of 12 million people. Office for National Statistics data contradicts this. The estimated UK population mid-2020 was 66.7 million, rising to 69.5 million by mid-2025—an increase of about 2.7 million, not 12 million.
The UK population actually reached 58 million in mid-1995 and has steadily increased since. The last time it could legitimately be rounded down to 58 million was in 1998. A 12-million increase has occurred since mid-1991, when the population stood at 57.4 million.
Energy Costs: Partially Accurate
Ratcliffe stated that energy costs are "3-4 times higher than in the USA." This claim requires context, as energy encompasses electricity, gas, oil, and coal. If referring to business electricity prices, European prices are indeed higher than US prices, but not by the magnitude claimed.
UK Government data sourced from the International Energy Agency shows that in 2019, average European energy prices were 43% higher than US prices. More recent comparisons suggest European prices were approximately 2.3 times higher than US prices in 2024. However, research from think tank Bruegel indicates that while EU industrial electricity prices were 2.6 times higher than in the US, gas prices in the EU were 4.5 times higher—aligning with Ratcliffe's claim when considering gas specifically.
Carbon Taxes: Mixed Accuracy
The businessman claimed carbon taxes have "quadrupled since 2020 and allowances have halved since 2020, and our competitors who import product don't pay carbon taxes." Analysis reveals partial accuracy. The EU's emissions trading system cap for manufacturing installations decreased from 1,816 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2020 to 1,386 million tonnes in 2024—a 24% reduction, not a halving.
The price for EU emissions allowances increased from 23.56 euros per tonne in February 2020 to 78.74 euros in February 2026—approximately a 3.4-fold increase, close to quadrupling. The UK's post-Brexit system showed a price of £49.26 per tonne in February 2026, about 2.4 times higher than the February 2020 EU price.
Regarding competitors not paying carbon taxes, Tom Cantillon of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit noted this view is "simply out of date." The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism is operational, the UK's begins next year, and major economies worldwide operate their own carbon markets. The World Bank reported 43 carbon taxes and 37 emissions trading systems globally in 2025.
While Ratcliffe's comments highlight legitimate concerns about UK competitiveness and economic challenges, several key figures he presented do not align with official statistics and data analysis. The manufacturing decline, while real, is less dramatic than claimed; benefits claimant numbers are slightly lower; population growth is significantly overstated; and energy cost comparisons depend heavily on which energy sources are considered.
