Rocketing oil prices driven by the Iran conflict are expected to enhance BP's first-quarter figures, as crude has surged past $100 a barrel since the war began. The FTSE 100 oil giant, set to announce quarterly results on Tuesday, had earlier this month indicated an 'exceptional' oil trading outcome for the first three months of the year. This follows a 'weak' performance in the final quarter of 2025.
Oil Price Surge and Financial Impact
Oil prices have climbed sharply since the US-Israel war on Iran started on February 28, with Brent crude nearing $120 a barrel at one point and remaining above $100 amid stalled peace talks and concerns over a global energy supply crisis. BP has disclosed that each $1 movement per barrel in oil prices affects pre-tax operating profits by $340 million (£252 million). Consequently, its share price has jumped nearly a third over the past six months.
Potential Adverse Effects
Despite the windfall, BP cautioned about some negative impacts. Upstream production is expected to be broadly flat compared to the previous quarter, with oil production slightly lower. Net debt is projected to rise to between $25 billion and $27 billion (£18.5 billion to £20 billion), up from $22.2 billion (£16.4 billion) in the fourth quarter.
New Leadership and Shareholder Concerns
These results will be the first under new chief executive Meg O'Neill, who took over on April 1, replacing Murray Auchincloss. Auchincloss was ousted last year as part of a leadership overhaul by new chairman Albert Manifold. Michael Hewson of MCH Market Insights commented, 'It's important not to have too high an expectation in what will be Meg O'Neill's first earnings announcement as chief executive, but it should set the tone for what is to come next. Given that she's joining after a weak fourth quarter, when BP posted a $3.4 billion loss, the bar is quite low.'
AGM Climate Revolt
The earnings follow BP's annual general meeting on Thursday, where shareholders rebelled over climate transparency and governance. Chairman Albert Manifold faced a provisional 18.2% vote against his election, seen as a rebuke after BP refused to bring a shareholder climate resolution to a vote, proposed rescinding previously passed climate resolutions, and moved to hold future meetings fully online—the latter two were voted down. This occurred amid BP's recent shift back to oil and gas from renewables, after its green agenda left it lagging behind rivals and facing takeover threats. Hewson added, 'BP will need to show it's serious about improving margins, reducing debt, and addressing institutional shareholder challenges.'
