New official data reveals that UK government borrowing, while reaching its lowest November level in four years, came in higher than economists had anticipated, with a recent policy reversal on winter fuel support contributing to the overshoot.
Borrowing Figures: A Mixed Picture for the Treasury
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that public sector net borrowing, excluding public sector banks, stood at £11.7 billion in November 2025. This represents a decrease of £1.9 billion compared to November 2024 and is the lowest figure for that month since 2021.
However, this result was more than the £10.3 billion forecast by most independent economists. It also significantly exceeded the £8.6 billion predicted in March by the government's fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
The Impact of the Winter Fuel Policy Reversal
A key factor behind the higher-than-expected annual borrowing total was a government U-turn on winter fuel payments. Earlier plans to severely restrict payments through means testing were abandoned. Instead, the government opted to provide the payment to all pensioners, except those with annual incomes above £35,000.
This decision added an estimated £1.8 billion in spending, helping to drive an upward revision of £3.9 billion to the borrowing total for the first seven months of the financial year. Cumulative borrowing for the eight months of the fiscal year to date reached £132.3 billion. This is £10 billion higher than the same period last year and £16.8 billion above the OBR's March forecast.
Debt Interest and the Wider Fiscal Landscape
The lower November borrowing figure was partly aided by a year-on-year fall in debt interest payments, which dropped by £200 million to £3.4 billion, their lowest November level in six years. Despite this, public sector net debt, including the Bank of England, climbed to £2.93 trillion by the end of November, equivalent to approximately 95.6% of GDP.
ONS senior statistician Tom Davies noted, "Despite an increase in spending, this month’s borrowing was the lowest November for four years. The main reason for the drop from last year was increased receipts from taxes and National Insurance contributions."
Economists and Officials React
The latest figures prompted concern from economic analysts. Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, suggested there was "very little Christmas cheer for the Chancellor" in the data. He expressed doubts about the government's revenue projections and its ability to implement planned spending cuts.
In response, Chief Secretary to the Treasury James Murray emphasised the burden of debt interest, which consumes £1 in every £10 of public spending. He stated the recent Budget was designed to address this by cutting debt and borrowing.
Martin Beck of WPI Strategy highlighted that "confidence remains the missing ingredient," arguing that a credible growth strategy was as crucial as specific tax and spending plans for the nation's financial health.
