The UK population is expected to grow at a slower rate over the next decade than previously predicted, driven by lower net migration and declining fertility rates, according to new projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The population is now forecast to peak in the mid-2050s before beginning to decline.
Slower Growth Projections
Around 1.7 million people are expected to be added to the UK population between 2024 and 2034, increasing the total by 2.5% from 69.3 million to 71.0 million. This is significantly lower than last year's ONS figures, which predicted a rise of 3.0 million (4.3%) over the same period. The downward revision reflects a dramatic drop in net migration and lower anticipated fertility rates.
Growth is expected to slow further in the 2030s and 2040s, with the population peaking at 72.5 million in 2054. After that, it is projected to decline to 72.1 million by 2064 and 71.4 million by 2074. Earlier projections had suggested continuous growth until 2096.
Natural Change Turns Negative
Net migration is expected to be the sole driver of population growth over the next several decades. Natural change is forecast to turn negative from 2026 onwards, with deaths outnumbering births every year. Over the decade to 2034, net migration will contribute an additional 2.2 million people, while natural change will result in 450,000 more deaths than births, yielding a net growth of 1.7 million.
James Robards, ONS head of household and population projections, stated: "Our latest projections indicate slower population growth than previously projected. This is mainly due to lower migration assumptions – reflective of the recent steep fall in net migration – and lower fertility assumptions. At the UK level, the population is projected to peak in the 2050s before decreasing." He emphasised that projections are not forecasts or predictions and do not account for future events or policy changes.
Regional Peaks
The population will peak at different times across the four nations. England is projected to reach a high of 62.1 million in 2056, while Wales will peak at 3.2 million in 2035, Scotland at 5.6 million in 2033, and Northern Ireland at 1.9 million in 2031.
Ageing Population
The number of people of pensionable age is forecast to rise from 12.4 million to 14.2 million by 2034, representing 20.0% of the total population. In contrast, children under 16 will decline from 12.6 million (18.2%) to 11.0 million (15.5%). By 2054, pensioners will account for 22.0% and under-16s for 14.5%.
Maike Currie, vice president of personal finance at PensionBee, commented: "The UK's demographic dividend is turning into a deepening demographic drag. For the pension system, this means fewer future workers supporting more retirees." She noted that with a third of those leaving the UK aged 16 to 34, the pension system faces a double hit: fewer contributors and more retirees.
Stuart McDonald, head of longevity and demographic insights at LCP, added: "Pensioner numbers will grow faster than the working-age population, while the number of children is projected to fall. For the NHS, the challenge is not simply a larger population, but a larger population at ages associated with greater healthcare need." He highlighted the need for improved productivity and prevention to avoid significant cost increases, and suggested further increases in the state pension age, raising questions of fairness given inequalities in life expectancy.
