If birth rates offer a glimpse into a nation's economic vitality, the United States is facing a stark warning signal. To maintain a stable population over time, women need to have an average of 2.1 children, a benchmark known as the replacement fertility rate. The US has now fallen significantly below this critical line.
A Historic Decline in American Births
As of 2024, the country's total fertility rate has dropped to just 1.6 children per woman, an all-time low that experts are calling a 'baby bust'. This represents a dramatic reversal from the post-war era. At the peak of the baby boom in 1957, the average was 3.8 children per woman.
Those larger families did more than reshape domestic life; they fuelled decades of robust economic expansion. The boom generation created sustained demand for housing, accelerated suburban growth, and eventually supplied a massive workforce.
The Ripple Effects of a Shrinking Population
Sustained low birth rates trigger wide-ranging consequences. A smaller youth population today translates into fewer workers tomorrow, slower economic growth, and increased strain on social safety nets like Social Security and Medicare as the populace ages.
This demographic shift is also a symptom of profound financial anxiety. Many Americans are delaying parenthood or forgoing it entirely due to soaring costs for housing and childcare, coupled with a pervasive sense of job insecurity.
Utah's Surprising Demographic Shift
While the trend is nationwide, some states are experiencing particularly sharp changes. One of the most unexpected is Utah, long celebrated for its family-centric culture. Analysis of US Census data from 2010 to 2024 reveals that five of the steepest declines in the share of children under five occurred in Utah cities, including Logan, Ogden, Provo, and St. George.
However, the reality is nuanced. The declining share of young children isn't solely due to fewer births. Utah's fertility rate, though falling to around 1.8, remains above the national average. The state has simultaneously become a magnet for working-age professionals and retirees, attracted by a strong tech job market and a lower cost of living than many coastal states.
This rapid influx of adults means the overall population is growing quickly. Even if the number of young children holds steady, they constitute a smaller proportion of a much larger population.
Utah's family-friendly reputation is closely tied to its large Mormon community, which makes up about half the state's residents. The faith's emphasis on family life has been amplified by popular culture through shows like The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives and The Real Housewives of Salt Lake City, which often highlight family dynamics.
A Broader Western Trend
This demographic transformation extends beyond Utah. Smaller Western metropolitan areas like Grand Junction, Colorado, and Carson City, Nevada, have seen even more pronounced drops in their under-five population share. Similar to Utah, these areas attract new residents with mountain vistas, affordable housing, and tax benefits—growth that dilutes the presence of young children even without a catastrophic collapse in local birth rates.
In essence, Americans across the country, including in traditionally family-oriented states, are having fewer children. But in many fast-growing Western cities, the narrative isn't just about a 'baby bust'. It's equally about a surge of new adult residents reshaping the demographic landscape, making young families a smaller piece of a rapidly expanding pie.
