American oil executives are showing keen interest in expanding their operations in Venezuela, but a significant cloud of uncertainty hangs over their potential investments: the unpredictable nature of President Donald Trump's social media activity.
The Tweet That Could Topple Foreign Policy
Energy investors have expressed deep-seated nerves that the President could derail their complex business plans with a single, off-the-cuff post. One investor told the Financial Times bluntly, "No one wants to go in there when a random f***ing tweet can change the entire foreign policy of the country." This sentiment persists despite the Trump administration's move last Friday to depose ex-dictator Nicolas Maduro and announce that the US would 'run' the country and operate its vital oil infrastructure.
Since that declaration, savvy market speculators have been carefully considering how to capitalise on the new situation. However, major energy companies are now actively seeking concrete guarantees before committing significant resources to the troubled South American nation. A top energy executive emphasised to the FT, "There would have to be some serious guarantees from the government to get the big boys back in Venezuela."
White House Plans and Executive Concerns
The issue is set to come to a head this Friday, when President Trump is expected to meet with oil executives at the White House. Representatives from industry giants Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil are among those anticipated to attend and discuss future operations in Venezuela.
This follows strong statements from the administration about its long-term intentions. At an investor conference in Miami on Wednesday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright declared that the US will control Venezuela's oil 'indefinitely.' Speaking at an event hosted by Goldman Sachs, Wright outlined the plan: "Instead of the oil being blockaded, as it is right now, we’re gonna let the oil flow … to United States’ refineries and around the world." He confirmed the US government would market the crude, starting with stored oil and then ongoing production.
Earlier this week, President Trump himself announced a scheme to sell up to 50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela, with the revenue controlled by the US to benefit both the Venezuelan people and American interests.
Stability and Investment Hurdles Remain
Despite Maduro's removal, serious questions about stability linger, centred on interim leader Delcy Rodriguez and her administration. President Trump has stated he is prepared to authorise additional US military operations if Rodriguez fails to comply with White House demands.
For the oil industry, the political risk translates into practical hesitation. Chevron is currently the lone US company with a pre-existing license to access and sell Venezuelan crude, putting it in a unique position. Nonetheless, the path to significant, sustained investment is seen as long. The same energy executive noted, "It’s going to take a while to see real investment in the country and then longer to get production up."
As the Friday meeting approaches, the central challenge for the administration is clear: convincing cautious capital that the rewards in Venezuela outweigh the risks—including those emanating from the President's own Twitter feed.
