A recent analysis has highlighted a significant shift in European energy dynamics, with Donald Trump's administration exerting increasing control over the energy supplies of both the European Union and the United Kingdom. This development stems from Europe's strategic move away from Russian pipeline gas, largely in response to the war in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, which has led to a growing dependency on shipments of US liquified natural gas (LNG).
Rising Dependence on US LNG
According to a collaborative paper from the Clingendael Institute in The Hague, the Ecologic Institute in Berlin, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, imports of US LNG to the European Economic Area surged by 61% in 2025. This marks a staggering 485% increase compared to 2019 levels. The data indicates that the US now supplies 59% of all LNG imports to the EU, underscoring a profound transformation in energy trade patterns.
UK's Vulnerability in the Energy Market
The United Kingdom, despite its departure from the EU single market, faces similar vulnerabilities. In 2024, the UK met 50% of its gas demand through domestic production and 33% via imports from the EEA. However, for its LNG needs, the UK relied heavily on the US, with American shipments constituting 68% of its total LNG imports. This reliance places the UK in a precarious position, mirroring the exposure of its European allies.
Geopolitical Risks and Economic Implications
The study warns that this newfound dependence is fraught with risk, particularly given Trump's shift towards a more protectionist and ideologically charged foreign policy. Recent tensions, including threats of tariffs over issues like Greenland, have exacerbated concerns. The US national security strategy paper from November explicitly advocates for American energy dominance as a means to project power globally.
Professor Kacper Szulecki of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs emphasised the urgency of the situation. He noted that with EU gas reserves at their lowest in years, a cold winter combined with ongoing tensions could trigger a dramatic energy crisis, leading to higher bills for consumers. Szulecki pointed out that while the US attempted similar strategies in the 1980s under Ronald Reagan, the lack of LNG technology at the time limited alternatives to Russian gas.
Call for Strategic Action
Raffaele Piria, a senior researcher at the Ecologic Institute and initiator of the report, stressed that the UK is physically and economically integrated into the European gas grid, making it just as susceptible to geopolitical shocks. He highlighted that historically, US interference in gas markets was considered unthinkable, but current dynamics challenge this assumption.
The paper argues that Europe must act decisively to mitigate these risks. In the medium to long term, accelerating the transition to an efficient energy system based on indigenous renewable sources is crucial. This move would reduce reliance on external suppliers and enhance energy security across the continent.
As European policymakers grapple with these challenges, the study serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities inherent in the current energy landscape, urging a proactive approach to safeguard against future crises.
