Scottish Property Market Presents Contradictory Picture in Latest Survey
The Scottish property market is displaying a complex and somewhat contradictory set of signals, according to the latest findings from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics). While new homebuyer enquiries have fallen to their lowest net level since mid-2024, a significant proportion of surveyors remain optimistic about future sales and price increases over the coming quarter.
Demand Declines While Supply and Sales Show Positive Movement
The Rics Residential Market Survey for February indicates a notable shift in buyer sentiment. A net balance of minus 8% of respondents in Scotland reported that new buyer enquiries declined during the month. This represents a sharp downturn from the previous month's figure of a positive net balance of 18%, marking the weakest reading since the middle of 2024.
Conversely, the data on supply and agreed sales presents a more encouraging picture. A net balance of 8% of surveyors noted that instructions to sell properties increased in February, although this figure is down from the 27% recorded in January. More positively, newly agreed sales saw a net balance increase of 7%, marking the second consecutive month of positive growth in this category.
Surveyors Express Strong Confidence in Future Market Performance
Despite the current dip in demand, Scottish surveyors are projecting a robust recovery in the near term. A substantial net balance of 39% of respondents anticipate that sales volumes will rise over the next three months. Furthermore, a net 28% reported that house prices had increased over the past three months, albeit at a slower rate compared to January.
Looking ahead, a net balance of 24% of Scottish surveyors expect house prices to continue their upward trajectory over the next quarter. This forward-looking optimism suggests that professionals within the industry view the current demand weakness as a temporary phenomenon rather than a long-term trend.
Industry Voices Highlight Regional Activity and Broader Economic Concerns
Marion Currie, a Rics-registered valuer at Galbraith in Dumfries and Galloway, provided a positive regional perspective, stating: "Activity has increased as February has unfolded. Agreed sales are starting to gain momentum and a good supply of fresh stock is in the pipeline. An encouraging outlook as we head towards a new financial year."
On the broader UK-wide context, Tarrant Parsons, head of market research and analytics at Rics, offered a more cautious analysis. He commented: "February's survey highlights renewed volatility in the market. While activity indicators at the start of the year suggested a tentative improvement, the deterioration in the geopolitical backdrop has clearly weighed on confidence. The recent rise in oil and energy prices has also increased the likelihood that mortgage rates will remain higher for longer. As a result, near-term expectations have softened. Although the 12-month outlook remains positive overall, maintaining that trajectory will depend on the recent spike in inflationary pressures easing in the months ahead."
Market Dynamics Reflect a Period of Transition and Uncertainty
The survey results collectively paint a picture of a property market in transition. The immediate decline in buyer enquiries points to potential consumer hesitancy, possibly influenced by broader economic factors such as geopolitical tensions and energy price fluctuations affecting mortgage affordability. However, the sustained positive momentum in agreed sales and the strong forward-looking expectations from industry professionals indicate underlying market resilience.
This divergence between current demand indicators and future expectations will be a key area to monitor in the coming months, as the market navigates the balance between short-term volatility and longer-term growth prospects.
