Food prices in the UK are on track to be 50% higher in November than at the start of the cost of living crisis in 2021, according to research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). The thinktank found that climate and energy shocks have driven an almost quadrupling of the pace of food price growth, with costs rising in five years at about the same rate as they had over the previous two decades.
Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation charity, said: “Food prices rising this high and this fast leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate. When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises – taking parents out of work and piling pressure on an NHS that can least afford it.”
The research suggests the cost of living crisis is likely to remain a key political issue during 2026. Experts have warned that the war in the Middle East could drive up inflation, which had already been pushed higher by the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Bank of England has said food inflation is expected to rise to 7% by the end of the year due to higher prices for fertiliser, energy and transport.
Foods including pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate and eggs are all at least 50% more expensive than five years ago, while beef prices are up 64% and olive oil has more than doubled, the ECIU said. These rises reflect products’ “sensitivity to volatile oil and gas prices, synthetic fertiliser costs, and climate impacts such as droughts, floods and heatwaves”, both in the UK and in key import regions.
The ECIU added that these forces pushed household food bills up by an average of £605 over 2022 and 2023, and that five climate-affected foods – butter, milk, beef, chocolate and coffee – have been responsible for much of the continued pressure on food inflation. Chris Jaccarini, a food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said: “Trump’s war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike. Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Niño effect.”
