As the cold, grey days of January settle in, many Brits are turning their thoughts to sunnier times and considering booking their summer getaway. With numerous travel sales promising early bird discounts, it seems the perfect moment to secure a deal. However, new research from consumer champion Which? suggests that resisting this urge and holding off could lead to significant savings.
The Price Drop Pattern: Why January Isn't Best
Which? tracked over 40,000 summer package holiday prices from major providers last year and made a surprising discovery. Contrary to popular belief, prices on average fell after January. The analysis found that holidaymakers who booked in January paid an average of £112 more per person than those who waited until just one month before travel.
For a typical family of four, that early booking decision could have meant flushing nearly £450 of their holiday budget down the drain. Guy Hobbs, Travel Expert at Which?, commented on the shift, stating: "We can’t be sure that 2026 prices will follow the same pattern, but it’s enough to make me sceptical of the so-called early bird discounts."
When to Book: A Month-by-Month Guide for 2026
The research, which gathered 43,510 prices from October 2024 to July 2025 for seven-night August packages with Jet2holidays and easyJet holidays, pinpointed the cheapest booking windows. The findings mark a dramatic change from post-pandemic trends, where prices soared the closer it got to summer.
For many key European destinations, July was the cheapest month to book an August holiday. After that, the ideal booking month varied by country:
- April was best for Bulgaria and the Balearic Islands.
- May offered the lowest prices for Morocco, the Canary Islands, Cyprus, Croatia, Spain, and Italy (though January was also good for Italy).
- June proved optimal for France, Turkey, and Portugal.
Guy Hobbs explained the trend reversal: "After the pandemic, there was such demand for summer sun that prices started high and went up and up. But in 2025 it all changed. In most destinations, we saw the highest prices the preceding October and the lowest just one month before travel in July."
Navigating Uncertainty for Your 2026 Holiday
The driving force behind this shift appears to be financial caution, with many households delaying holiday commitments. Several travel companies, including Jet2, reported that bookings were made much closer to departure last year, a trend that likely triggered some deep discounting to fill planes and hotels.
Unfortunately, there is no guaranteed formula for predicting the absolute best day to buy. Prices fluctuate based on demand, and the same economic pressures that caused delayed bookings in 2025 are expected to persist in 2026. This means waiting until the last minute is a gamble, especially if you have a specific resort or dates in mind.
For those who need to travel during the school holidays and have a fixed destination, Guy Hobbs suggests a middle ground: "The data shows a booking window between April and June, where prices were lower, on average, than in January, but availability remained high. That’s when I’ll be scouring the offers."
The ultimate advice for savvy holidaymakers is to weigh flexibility against certainty. If you can be spontaneous with timing and location, holding out for potential July bargains might pay off. If not, targeting the spring booking window could offer the best balance of price and choice.
