US Tourism Faces 'Trump Slump' Crisis Ahead of 2026 World Cup
The United States tourism industry is confronting a severe downturn as international visitors increasingly avoid the country, creating what experts are calling a "Trump slump" that threatens to undermine the anticipated economic benefits of hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Alarming Decline in Foreign Visitors
While global international travel increased by 4% in 2025, the United States experienced a significant 5.4% decline in foreign tourist arrivals. This represents a steeper drop than during the 2017-18 period, marking the most substantial tourism downturn outside the COVID-19 pandemic era. The share of global international travel destined for the United States has been steadily decreasing, falling from 8.4% in 1996 to just 4.9% in 2024, with projections indicating a further decline to 4.8% in 2025.
This troubling trend stands in stark contrast to other major tourism destinations. Countries including France, Greece, Mexico, and Italy are all expecting increases in international arrivals, highlighting the United States' growing isolation in the global tourism market.
Canadian Tourism Collapse
The impact is particularly pronounced from Canada, the single largest source of foreign tourists for the United States. Canadian travel to the United States plummeted by nearly 30% in 2025, representing a devastating blow to border state economies that depend heavily on cross-border visitors.
Canadian visitors generated approximately 20.4 million visits and roughly US$20.5 billion in visitor spending in 2024, supporting about 140,000 American jobs. The sharp decline in return car trips to Canada serves as a direct indicator that border economies are facing significant stress, prompting tourism professionals to offer "Canadian-only deals" in desperate attempts to woo back visitors.
Even traditional winter destinations are feeling the pinch. Florida, Arizona, and California are experiencing fewer short-stay arrivals and a noticeable drop-off in Canadian "snowbirds." Reports indicate increasing numbers of Canadians are listing their U.S. properties for sale and canceling seasonal plans, threatening local economies dependent on lodging, healthcare spending, and property tax revenue.
Policy-Driven Tourism Decline
Multiple factors are driving this tourism exodus, with Trump administration policies appearing as primary contributors. Aggressive tariff announcements pushing rates to their highest levels since 1935, combined with tougher border rhetoric and an increasingly confrontational foreign policy, have created negative perceptions of the United States among potential visitors.
"The world's biggest travel and tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction," warned Julia Simpson, president and CEO of the World Travel and Tourism Council. "While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the 'closed' sign."
Additional deterrents include a new $250 visa integrity fee, plans for social media screening of some visitors, and travel bans imposed on several countries including Senegal, Ivory Coast, Iran, and Haiti—all of which have qualified for the 2026 World Cup.
Safety Concerns and Economic Factors
Beyond policy decisions, safety concerns are increasingly keeping travelers away. Several countries, including Germany, have issued travel advisories about risks associated with visiting the United States. Although most concerns relate to heightened border controls, recent aggressive tactics by immigration agents have further discouraged potential visitors.
Economic factors are also playing a significant role. Exchange rate fluctuations and inflation have made U.S. trips more expensive for many international travelers, particularly Canadians whose weakened currency in 2025 disproportionately affected day-trip and shopping-driven border crossings.
World Cup Expectations Versus Reality
With 75% of 2026 FIFA World Cup matches scheduled across the United States, the event was expected to deliver a substantial tourism boost. However, experts now question whether this anticipated bump will materialize given the current political climate.
Former FIFA President Sepp Blatter has suggested fans avoid traveling to the United States for the tournament, while European soccer leaders have even discussed boycott possibilities. Although such drastic actions remain unlikely due to revenue considerations, the mere discussion reflects the damaged international perception of the United States as a destination.
While bookings for flights and hotels increased after World Cup dates and venues were announced in December, ongoing political rhetoric continues to affect travel decisions. The situation is further complicated by the fact that fans from some qualified countries may be unable to obtain visas due to existing travel bans.
Long-Term Damage and Recovery Challenges
The tourism outlook remains concerning, with estimates suggesting the United States lost approximately $30 billion in international tourism revenue in 2025 alone as travelers chose alternative destinations. The decline extends beyond leisure tourism, affecting business travel with every major global region sending fewer people to the United States for work purposes.
Compounding these challenges, federal funding for Brand USA—the national destination marketing organization—was severely cut in mid-2025, resulting in staff shortages that have reduced the country's capacity to counter negative sentiment through positive promotion.
Tourism experts believe the damage to the nation's international reputation will require substantial time and strategic effort to repair. With White House policies unlikely to change dramatically in the coming months and ongoing concerns about safety and economic factors, the "Trump slump" appears poised to continue through 2026, potentially undermining what should have been a banner year for United States tourism.
