In a significant diplomatic shift, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has concluded a landmark visit to Beijing, securing a preliminary trade agreement aimed at reducing Ottawa's heavy economic dependence on the United States. The trip, the first by a Canadian leader to China in nearly a decade, is being framed as a necessary reset for a "new world order."
A Strategic Recalibration Amid Global Tensions
The visit comes after years of strained relations between Canada and China. Mark Carney explicitly stated his goal was to thaw this diplomatic deep freeze, driven by an urgent need to diversify Canada's export markets. Currently, the nation sends approximately 70% of its exports south of the border to the US.
Guy Saint-Jacques, a former Canadian ambassador to China, noted the success of the mission, saying, "The main goal of trying to reset or recalibrate the relationship with China has been achieved during this trip." He emphasised that this urgency stems directly from difficulties with Canada's neighbour, a point underscored as US President Donald Trump remarked that America "doesn't need Canadian products" just as Carney departed for Beijing.
The Details of the Preliminary Agreement
The core of the new deal involves a provisional agreement allowing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into the Canadian market. In return, China will lower tariffs on key Canadian exports like canola, lobsters, seafood, and peas from March until year's end. Both sides also pledged to reduce, though not fully remove, tariffs on other key industries, aiming to end a protracted trade war.
Vina Nadjibulla of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada called the accompanying joint statement outlining a new strategic partnership the summit's biggest surprise. "It's a bold move by Carney to position Canada in this new and evolving geopolitical order," she said, highlighting the quest for greater strategic autonomy.
Criticism and Concerns at Home
While hailed by some in Ottawa, the deal has sparked immediate political backlash. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre challenged Carney's reversal from calling China a security threat before the election to announcing a partnership after it. Ontario Premier Doug Ford criticised the electric vehicle tariff reductions, warning, "Make no mistake: China now has a foothold in the Canadian market and will use it to their full advantage at the expense of Canadian workers."
Experts also caution against over-optimism. Michael Kovrig, a former diplomat and senior Asia adviser, noted that every new government thinks it can manage China better than the last. "History says otherwise," he stated, warning that China is a one-party state that routinely uses trade as political leverage. Nadjibulla added that deepening reliance on Chinese markets for exports like canola remains a "worrisome" strategy that has backfired before.
A Mutual Need for New Partnerships
The drive for a deal is not one-sided. Lynette Ong, a China scholar at the University of Toronto, explained that Beijing is under growing pressure to forge deeper relationships as its economy remains lacklustre and reliant on exports. She noted the Chinese foreign ministry's careful framing, which avoided mention of weakening Canada's US ties, suggesting a desire to negotiate in good faith.
In Beijing, commentators framed Carney's visit as a watershed moment. An article in the Communist party's People's Daily praised Canada for "recalibrating their China policies based on their own national interests" instead of blindly following Washington's lead.
Carney, admired in Beijing for his technocratic background, addressed concerns about human rights and election interference, calling them "red lines" for Ottawa. Yet, he pragmatically concluded, "We take the world as it is – not as we wish it to be," encapsulating the realpolitik driving this historic pivot.
