An Israeli military reservist and a civilian have been formally indicted on serious charges after allegedly exploiting classified intelligence to place bets on military operations through the Polymarket prediction market website. Authorities confirmed the unprecedented security breach on Thursday, revealing a joint investigation that has already resulted in multiple arrests.
Security Services Uncover Betting Ring
A coordinated statement issued by Israel's Defence Ministry, the Shin Bet internal security service, and national police disclosed that several individuals were recently detained in connection with illicit gambling activities on the Polymarket platform. The statement explicitly noted that "This was allegedly based on classified information to which the reservists were exposed through their military duties."
Serious Charges Filed
Following the accumulation of substantial evidence against both the civilian and the reservist, Israel's State Prosecutor's Office has proceeded with indictments encompassing grave security offences, bribery allegations, and obstruction of justice. Legal representatives for the accused were not immediately reachable for commentary on the charges.
The security establishment issued a stern warning, emphasising that "engaging in such gambling activities based on confidential and classified information poses a real security risk to IDF (Israeli military) operations and to state security." The decision to prosecute followed an extensive joint probe involving police forces, military intelligence units, and other security agencies.
Connection to Previous Military Action
Israeli media outlets have reported that this case is likely connected to an earlier investigation where an anonymous user successfully wagered that Israel would conduct a strike on Iran on the precise Friday it occurred in June 2025. While the military confirmed that "according to the investigation findings, no operational damage was caused in the current incident," officials described a "severe ethical failure and a clear crossing of a red line, which are not consistent with the values of the IDF and what is expected of its service members."
The military further stated that both criminal and disciplinary proceedings will be initiated against any individuals found to be involved in such actions. Specific details of the ongoing investigation remain limited, and the identities of those implicated are protected under a court-ordered publication ban.
The Rise of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets like Polymarket operate through event contracts that typically pose yes-or-no questions, with market prices reflecting traders' perceptions of an event's likelihood. The utilisation of these platforms has expanded dramatically in recent years, despite the inherent financial risks where traders frequently incur losses daily.
In the United States, such trades are categorised distinctly from conventional gambling forms, sparking ongoing debates regarding transparency, regulatory oversight, and potential security vulnerabilities when sensitive information becomes involved.
