Mexico Grapples with Fallout After El Mencho's Death
A soldier clears a roadblock leading to Tapalca, Mexico, on 23 February 2026, just one day after the Mexican army successfully eliminated Nemesio Oseguera, the notorious leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, widely known as 'El Mencho'. This operation has plunged the nation into turmoil, with schools shuttered, flights cancelled, and streets littered with the smouldering remains of buses, as the country reels from violent cartel retaliation.
Emotional Toll and Political Pressure
Defense Minister Omar García Harfuch was visibly moved, offering condolences to families of fallen soldiers, praising their mission's success. However, former US President Donald Trump swiftly countered on social media, urging Mexico to 'step up their effort on Cartels and Drugs!' despite the operation's high cost—25 national guard members lost their lives. This stark contrast underscores the intense pressure Trump exerts on Mexico's government, highlighting the critical role of US support in security operations and the ongoing struggle for President Claudia Sheinbaum to appease her US counterpart.
Background and Escalating Tensions
Oseguera, indicted multiple times in the US since 2017, faced increased scrutiny under Trump's second administration. In December 2024, a $15 million reward was offered for his capture, followed by the White House designating the JNGC as a foreign terrorist organization. Trump has persistently demanded more action against drug trafficking, even proposing US troop deployments, which Sheinbaum has firmly rejected. Adding to the pressure, Guadalajara, a JNGC stronghold, is set to host World Cup matches, prompting Mexico to demonstrate security capabilities.
Intelligence and International Collaboration
Experts note that US intelligence was pivotal in tracking and timing the operation. Eduardo Guerrero, a former Mexican security official, emphasized that close monitoring and coordination with US agencies were crucial. A US-military-led taskforce, specializing in cartel intelligence, reportedly played a key role in the raid. Arturo Sarukhán, a former Mexican ambassador to Washington, suggested this success might temporarily ease Trump's demands, but warned that trade relations remain intertwined with law enforcement efforts.
Trade Implications and Future Challenges
The killing of El Mencho could influence ongoing US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement renegotiations, with Trump previously threatening to exit the pact. Tony Payan, a US-Mexico studies expert, described a 'carrot and stick' approach: cooperation might yield trade rewards, but pressure is likely to persist. While US officials, like Congressman Dan Crenshaw, praised Mexico's efforts, Payan cautioned that this is merely the beginning, with Trump's thirst for action far from quenched. Mexico now faces an uphill battle to balance security gains with diplomatic and economic stability.
