Scientific Study Confirms Climate Change Exacerbated Southern Africa's Catastrophic Flooding
Human-caused climate change dramatically worsened the recent torrential rains and devastating floods that ravaged parts of southern Africa, according to a comprehensive scientific study released on Thursday. The research reveals that the extreme weather event, which claimed more than 100 lives and displaced over 300,000 people, was significantly intensified by anthropogenic global warming.
Unprecedented Rainfall and Widespread Devastation
The World Weather Attribution study, which analysed severe flooding across South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, found that affected regions experienced approximately a year's worth of rainfall within just ten days. This extraordinary deluge resulted in widespread destruction of housing and critical infrastructure, with damage estimates running into millions of dollars, alongside immeasurable human suffering and loss of life.
In Mozambique, numerous homes and buildings were completely submerged, while roads and bridges were swept away in South Africa's Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces and across parts of Zimbabwe. The scale of destruction overwhelmed communities and emergency services across the region.
A Fifty-Year Event Amplified by Climate Change
Researchers determined that the recent downpours represented a rare meteorological event of a magnitude that typically occurs only once every fifty years. The data confirmed a clear trend toward more violent downpours in the region, with the current La Nina weather phenomenon - which naturally brings wetter conditions to southern Africa - now operating within a significantly warmer atmosphere.
"Our analysis clearly shows that our continued burning of fossil fuels is not only increasing the intensity of extreme rainfall, but turning events that would have happened anyway into something much more severe," explained Izidine Pinto, a senior climate researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and co-author of the study.
Pinto noted that while climate models struggled to precisely quantify climate change's contribution, a 40% increase in rainfall intensity would be impossible to explain without human-induced climate change. "It means what would have already been a serious period of heavy rain has been transformed into a more violent deluge that communities are not equipped to deal with," he emphasised.
Beyond All Expectations and Preparedness
Although southern African regions are accustomed to heavy seasonal rains, scientists expressed alarm at the unprecedented magnitude of recent events. Bernardino Nhantumbo, a researcher with Mozambique's weather service, described the flooding as particularly surprising given historical patterns.
"This event was a surprise to us because we have experienced the previous ones 25 years ago, which flooded the same areas," Nhantumbo revealed. "There are places that have recorded in two to three days the rainfall that was expected for the entire rainy season, so this was very challenging to accommodate in any circumstances."
He further explained that Mozambique's geographical position downstream of nine international rivers compounds flooding impacts, with damage resulting from both heavy rainfall and increased stream flow. "We forecast well because we have different models, but these are those events that even with a good forecast you cannot hold the damages that are associated," Nhantumbo added.
The central and southern regions of Mozambique suffered particularly severe impacts, with the Gaza provincial capital of Xai-Xai and nearby Chokwe town largely submerged.
Urgent Need for Africa-Focused Climate Modelling
The research team highlighted a critical gap in current climate science: the absence of climate models developed specifically for African conditions. According to Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London's Centre for Environmental Policy, this deficiency partly explains why models struggled to precisely quantify climate change's role in the recent floods.
"All climate models that we have that are freely available are developed outside of Africa. They are all developed within climate modeling centers in the U.S., Europe and some in Asia," Professor Otto stated. "But there is not a single climate model that is developed in Africa. Because of this they are usually designed so that they get the weather best in the regions they are made for, and that is true for all models."
Researchers have consequently called for substantial investment in developing Africa-focused climate models to better understand regional climate dynamics and improve preparedness for future extreme weather events across the continent's diverse regions.
