New research has delivered a stark warning to governments: heavy-handed policies that force changes to personal lifestyles risk triggering a significant public backlash, potentially undermining the very climate action they aim to promote.
The 'Crowding-Out' Effect: When Policies Backfire
A study published in the journal Nature Sustainability has found that mandates targeting individual choices—such as banning cars from city centres, restricting meat consumption, or limiting air travel—can provoke strong resistance. This is true even among citizens who already strive to live sustainably.
The research, led by behavioural economist and psychologist Dr Katrin Schmelz from the Technical University of Denmark, surveyed over 3,000 people in Germany, using a demographically representative sample. The findings identify a concerning "crowding-out effect".
"Policies don’t just spur a target behaviour," explained Dr Schmelz. "They can change people’s underlying values, leading to unintended negative effects." In this case, resentment towards being controlled can override a person's existing motivation to make eco-friendly choices, such as cycling, using public transport, or reducing home energy use.
Stronger Opposition Than Pandemic Restrictions
One of the most striking conclusions was that opposition to these climate mandates was significantly stronger than the resistance faced by governments when imposing Covid-19 restrictions. The researchers recorded a 52 per cent greater negative response to the climate policies.
"We saw incredible hostility in the US and other countries towards controls during the Covid-19 pandemic," said study co-author Sam Bowles, an economist at the Santa Fe Institute. "It looks like the climate case could be much worse."
This heightened resistance underscores the sensitive nature of policies perceived to infringe on personal freedom and lifestyle.
Designing Policies That Build Support, Not Resistance
The study's authors are clear that their findings do not mean governments should abandon efforts to reduce emissions linked to consumption and travel. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that lifestyle changes could slash global emissions by up to 70 per cent by 2050.
However, the research stresses that how policies are designed is critical. Public resistance was notably lower when people believed a measure would be genuinely effective, did not intrude on privacy, and did not feel like a direct assault on personal liberty.
For instance, in the German survey, respondents were less opposed to limits on short-haul flights than to urban car bans. The researchers suggest this may be because efficient rail travel presents a viable alternative—a factor that may not apply in countries with less developed public transport networks, like the US.
"People are more open to policies that they think are effective," Dr Schmelz noted. "They also respond more positively if they don’t feel that a policy restricts their freedom."
The research is now feeding into discussions among policymakers and academics on crafting climate measures that garner public backing. As Mr Bowles concluded, "The science and technology to provide a low-carbon way of life is nearly solved. What’s lagging behind is a social and behavioural science of effective and politically viable climate policies."
