Fresh hope has emerged that Britain may be starting to turn the tide against a severe flu outbreak, potentially safeguarding Christmas plans for millions. The latest figures from NHS England indicate that while hospital admissions remain at record highs for the time of year, the alarming rate of growth has begun to slow, suggesting a possible plateau in infections.
Hospital Data Reveals Encouraging Slowdown
The most recent statistics show that an average of 3,140 flu patients were in hospital beds each day last week. This represents an 18% increase from the previous week, a significant deceleration from the 55% surge seen in the week before that. A closer look at the daily figures up to December 14 reveals a fluctuating pattern, with numbers rising and falling, which experts interpret as a potential sign that the surge is beginning to stabilise.
For instance, patient counts in general and acute beds in England stood at 3,037 last Wednesday, dipped to 2,961 on Thursday, rose to 3,215 on Friday, then fell again to 3,028 on Saturday and 2,932 on Sunday. A similar trend was observed in intensive care units.
Vaccination Drive and Public Vigilance Credited
NHS England has directly linked this slowing trend to higher vaccination rates and the public adopting protective behaviours learned during the Covid-19 pandemic. In a notable reversal of a decade-long decline in uptake, an additional 306,000 people have received their flu jab compared to the same point in 2024, bringing the total in England to around 18 million before Christmas.
Health officials believe actions like staying home when unwell, wearing masks if symptomatic, and regular handwashing are now bearing fruit. Caroline Abrahams, director at Age UK, urged continued caution, stating: "We can all hope that this new number means the surge in flu numbers is starting to abate, but one swallow does not make a summer... the best advice to our older population continues to be to get vaccinated."
Regionally, the data offered further optimism, with the North West of England recording a 4% fall in average daily flu hospitalisations last week.
Uncertain Trajectory Amid Record Pressure
Despite the encouraging signs, experts warn the situation remains precarious. The number of patients in hospital with flu is still the highest for this time of year since records began in 2021. Furthermore, 128 seriously ill flu patients were in critical care beds in England last week, up from 106 the week prior.
Dr Leon Peto, who is leading a national trial to find the first drugs proven to work against severe flu, expressed uncertainty about the season's peak. "Nobody really knows when the peak will be until after we’ve passed it," he said. "We may be nearing the peak now or it may be that there is a bigger peak than there has been in recent years."
The early onset of the virus in October, initially feared to be due to vaccine mismatch with the predominant H3N2 strain, is now thought to be linked to waning population immunity following periods of low flu circulation during the Covid-19 pandemic. The worst-case scenario would involve a "double peak" with a further rise after children return to school in January.
The NHS remains under extreme strain, compounded by other seasonal illnesses. Last week, an average of 427 hospital beds were filled daily by patients with diarrhoea, vomiting, or norovirus-like symptoms, a 21% weekly increase.
