For decades, butter, cheese, and red meat have been dietary demons, blamed for clogging arteries and increasing the risk of heart attacks. But a significant new analysis suggests that for a large portion of the population, cutting back on these saturated fats may offer little to no benefit in reducing mortality risk.
What the Major Meta-Analysis Revealed
The research, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine on Wednesday 17 December 2025, examined 17 studies involving 66,337 participants. Its key finding was stark: only individuals already at 'high cardiovascular risk' saw meaningful benefits from reducing their saturated fat intake over a period of around five years.
The international team concluded that "For persons at low cardiovascular risk, reducing or modifying saturated fat intake has little or no benefit." For those in the high-risk category, however, the evidence pointed to important reductions in mortality and major cardiovascular events.
A Shift in Scientific Perception
In an editorial accompanying the study, Dr Ramon Estruch and Dr Rosa Lamuela-Raventós from the University of Barcelona noted a profound shift in how science views these fats. Quoting Bob Dylan's 'The Times They Are A-Changin'', they argued the perception has moved from strictly harmful to having complex, and possibly even protective, effects for some subtypes of saturated fatty acids when consumed as part of a balanced diet.
They challenged the long-held 'diet-heart hypothesis', which emerged in the mid-20th century, stating it was "based on weak evidence of association and not causation." Instead, they suggest that a diet rich in unsaturated fats, alongside certain types of saturated fats, may offer health benefits.
Current Guidelines and Expert Caution
The current NHS advice remains unchanged, recommending that men consume no more than 30g of saturated fat per day, and women no more than 20g. It states that too much can raise cholesterol and increase heart disease risk, advising a swap to unsaturated fats.
However, experts urge caution in interpreting the new findings. Professor Nita Forouhi, a population health and nutrition expert at the University of Cambridge, noted the analysis did not examine outcomes over a longer, ten-year period, which is standard for heart-disease risk models. "For this reason, it would be premature to change existing dietary guidelines," she told the Mail. The UK government currently advises that saturated fats should make up less than 10% of total daily energy intake.
This landmark research indicates that the one-size-fits-all approach to saturated fat may be outdated, highlighting that an individual's personal health risk is the critical factor in determining dietary advice.
