Health experts have issued a stark warning that the UK could be hit by its most severe flu season on record this winter, driven by a mutated and potentially more dangerous strain of the virus.
A Virus That Beats Our Defences
The core of the concern lies in a significant mutation of the seasonal H3N2 flu strain, which occurred over the summer. Unlike the typical small, annual changes, this virus has transformed in a way that allows it to bypass some of the immune defences our bodies have built up from previous exposure or vaccination. Professor Nicola Lewis, from the World Influenza Centre at the Francis Crick Institute, told the BBC, "We haven't seen a virus like this for a while, these dynamics are unusual. It does concern me, absolutely. I'm not panicking, but I am worried."
This worrying development has been compounded by the unusually early start to the flu season, which has begun a full month ahead of schedule. Data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) confirms a sharp surge in cases, largely driven by children returning to school after the half-term break and the onset of colder weather.
Hospitalisations Rising Alarmingly Fast
The early impact is already being felt across the health service. The rate of hospital admissions for flu in England has jumped to 3.8 per 100,000 people in recent data, a significant increase from 2.4 the previous week. To put this in context, this level of hospitalisation is not normally seen until the peak of the season in December.
Comparing the current situation to previous years highlights the severity:
- At this point in 2024, the rate was 1.1 per 100,000.
- In 2023, it was just 0.4.
- Even in 2022, the worst flu season for a decade, the rate was 1.4.
Professor Lewis emphasised that the H3N2 group of viruses is historically more severe, stating, "H3 is always a hotter virus, it's a nastier virus, it's more impactful on the population." While flu symptoms vary, it can be particularly deadly for the elderly, the very young, and those with underlying health conditions.
An Urgent Call for Vaccination
In response to the escalating threat, the NHS has issued an "urgent SOS" warning, urging the public to get their flu vaccinations as soon as possible. Professor Kamila Hawthorne, chair of the Royal College of GPs, echoed this urgency, telling the Mirror, "Flu and other respiratory viruses are beginning to take hold sooner than expected. It's an early warning sign."
She specifically highlighted that older people, babies, young children, pregnant women, and those with chronic conditions are at a much higher risk of developing serious complications that could require hospitalisation. The clear message from health authorities is that vaccination remains the most effective defence against this newly mutated and concerning flu virus.
