Researchers have unveiled a groundbreaking new method that could predict the risk of a person suffering an asthma attack up to five years before it happens. The technique, which analyses specific molecules in the blood, offers a potential lifeline for the millions living with the chronic respiratory condition.
The Science Behind the Prediction
The international research team, from Massachusetts General Brigham in the US and the Karolinska Institutet in Sweden, employed a scientific approach known as metabolomics. They examined blood samples from more than 2,500 asthma patients across three major studies, scrutinising decades of electronic health records.
Their investigation revealed a crucial biological interaction. They found that the ratio between certain fats, called sphingolipids, and the body's naturally produced steroid hormones was a powerful indicator of future risk. This ratio could identify high-risk patients with approximately 90% accuracy, a significant improvement over current clinical assessments.
"We found that the interaction between sphingolipids and steroids drives the risk profile," stated principal researcher Craig Wheelock from the Karolinska Institutet. He emphasised that this ratio is "biologically meaningful" and robust enough to be developed into a practical, cost-effective clinical test.
A Leap in Accuracy and Patient Care
The study, whose findings were detailed on Monday 19 January 2026, highlighted the stark contrast between the new model and existing methods. A model relying solely on standard clinical information, such as symptoms and history, achieved an accuracy of just 50-70%.
By incorporating the sphingolipid-steroid ratio alongside medication use and genetic history, the predictive power soared. The researchers believe this strategy could even forecast the timing of a first attack in both high and low-risk groups up to a full year in advance.
"One of the biggest challenges in treating asthma is that we currently have no effective way to tell which patient is going to have a severe attack in the near future," explained Jessica Lasky-Su, an associate professor at Mass General Brigham. "Our findings solve a critical unmet need."
The Impact on Asthma Sufferers
Asthma affects a vast number of people, with around 28 million sufferers in the United States alone—roughly one in twelve Americans. An attack involves a sudden worsening of symptoms, including coughing, wheezing, and severe breathing difficulty, often triggered by factors like exercise, allergies, or air pollution.
While deaths from asthma attacks are relatively rare, they still claim over 3,000 lives annually in the US. The ability to predict attacks years ahead would allow for more personalised and proactive treatment plans, potentially preventing emergencies and saving lives.
The research team has applied for a patent for their innovative method. They caution that while lab testing could be easily implemented in the future, their promising results require further validation before becoming a routine part of clinical care.
