New polling data has revealed a significant appetite for military intervention among Republican voters in the United States, presenting a stark contrast to the "forever wars" rhetoric of their likely 2024 presidential nominee, Donald Trump.
A Hawkish Republican Base
A survey conducted by J.L. Partners for the Daily Mail shows that 67 percent of registered Republican voters support further US military intervention in countries beyond the recent action in Venezuela. This places the GOP electorate firmly on a more interventionist path than their Democratic counterparts, where only 25 percent back such action, and independents, at 41 percent.
This marks a notable evolution from the political landscape of the early 2000s. During the advent of the Iraq War under President George W. Bush, the Republican Party was synonymous with a hawkish, neoconservative stance, while Democrats were largely seen as the more anti-war party. In recent years, Donald Trump sought to flip this script, criticising the decision to go to war in Iraq and the protracted conflict in Afghanistan.
Where Would Americans Intervene Next?
The poll, which surveyed 999 registered voters on January 3 and 4 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, also asked where the US military should focus next. Among all voters, Iran emerged as the top choice, with 53 percent of Republicans in agreement.
This sentiment follows a tense period where President Trump warned Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that his regime would "pay a price" if protesters were murdered, stating the US was "locked and loaded." The US also took brief military action against Iranian nuclear facilities in June to aid Israel.
Other nations cited for potential intervention included Russia (18%), Cuba (17%), China (8%), and even the United Kingdom (6%). Notably, 5 percent selected Afghanistan and Greenland, while 2 percent chose Canada.
The Political Divide on Non-Intervention
When asked if the US should stay out of other countries' affairs, the partisan divide was equally clear. A majority of 58 percent of Democrats advocated for non-intervention, compared to 41 percent of independents and just 22 percent of Republicans.
Overall, the nation appears almost evenly split on the issue, with 43 percent of Americans backing more military intervention and 42 percent saying the US should stay out. The poll also found that 31 percent of respondents believed the Venezuela strike made US action against Iran more likely, a view held fairly evenly across party lines.
This data suggests that while Trump campaigns on an anti-war platform, he would be presiding over a party whose base is increasingly supportive of military action, setting up a potential tension between voter sentiment and campaign rhetoric in a future administration.
