The decades-long spy conflict between Russia and the West is intensifying over the Ukraine war, with Western intelligence agencies warning that Moscow could attack a Nato member within a year after the conflict ends. The warning comes amid a series of unprecedented expulsions of Russian intelligence officers from Western capitals.
Since 2014, Russia has unleashed its intelligence services on the West, engaging in cyber attacks, poisonings, and sabotage. In recent months, Western countries have sought to inflict lasting damage on Russian covert operations by expelling around 500 Russian officials, most of whom are believed to be undercover intelligence officers.
Some of those expelled were involved in 'active measures', including spreading propaganda and more aggressive covert activity. Poland said the 45 Russians it expelled were involved in actions to 'undermine the stability' of the country. Western intelligence agencies have been working to identify Russian spies, including GRU Unit 29155, which is believed to be tasked with sabotage, subversion, and assassination.
The expulsions are part of a wider push to degrade Russia's capacity to do harm. 'We are trying to inflict a cost on Russia to reduce its offensive capabilities and its ability to project threat against its neighbours and the West,' a Western official said. Security officials believe the volume of expulsions will have a 'debilitating' impact on Russian intelligence.
Russia has retaliated by expelling Western diplomats, but in practice, more of these are likely to be 'real' diplomats rather than intelligence officers. The UK has not expelled anyone since the Salisbury poisonings, as only 'declared' officers remain, who are likely watched by MI5.
