The decision on when and how to pursue peace in Ukraine rests solely with the nation whose cities are being bombed and whose soldiers are dying, according to analysis from MP Bob Seely. He argues that while Ukraine's remarkable bravery is undeniable, the peace terms being suggested by former US President Donald Trump pose a grave threat to the country's future sovereignty.
The Illusion of Peace and its Dire Consequences
Seely contends that the proposed deal is not a genuine peace but a delayed capitulation. The plan, which would force Ukraine to surrender well-defended territories and drastically reduce its armed forces, would leave the country prostrate before Moscow. This would create a scenario where, in years to come, a resurgent Russia would find it too tempting not to take a second bite.
The author outlines three key prizes that Russian President Vladimir Putin would secure through such a humiliating agreement for President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Putin's Triple Victory in a Bad Peace
Firstly, Putin would gain land his armies failed to capture and cities he has not yet destroyed. This would strengthen Russia's geographical position, particularly as the contested land is on higher ground, providing a largely flat and obstacle-free path towards Kyiv.
Secondly, and most critically, a bad peace would severely weaken Ukraine's internal cohesion. Seely warns that furious soldiers would demand to know why their comrades' blood was spilt in vain. Blame would be widespread over who sold them out and why there was no reckoning for Russian war crimes, including the kidnapping of children and acts of rape, torture, and murder.
Thirdly, such a deal would significantly damage the transatlantic alliance. The UK and Europe would lose trust in the United States if it hastily sold out Ukraine against European wishes, rendering the alliance one in name only. This fracture, a long-held ambition of Putin, could embolden him to threaten the Baltic republics, betting that NATO's collective self-defence pledge has evaporated. Other adversaries like China and Iran would also be encouraged.
Historical Precedent and Zelensky's Unenviable Position
Seely draws a stark parallel to the appeasement of Adolf Hitler in 1938, which handed Czechoslovakia to the Nazis but failed to secure lasting peace. The aggressor returned for more within a year.
For Ukraine, its very existence is at stake. President Zelensky now faces an unenviable task. He cannot dismiss Trump's poisoned chalice outright, but he cannot accept it either. His challenge is to seek a genuine, sustainable peace for his nation without sowing the seeds of its eventual destruction.
The analysis concludes that Trump has shown staggering naivety on Ukraine, with his ambivalence towards Kyiv emboldening Putin to dictate terms. The future of Ukraine, and the security of Europe, now rests heavily on Zelensky's shoulders.
