A Constitutional Crossroads for the United Kingdom
In a striking display of political discontent, a march in favour of Welsh independence took place in Cardiff on 1 October 2022, captured vividly by photographer Matthew Horwood. This event symbolises a broader trend that should alarm Westminster: after the elections in May, every devolved parliament in the UK could be led by parties advocating for independence. With Plaid Cymru, the SNP, and Sinn Féin leading polls in their respective nations, the very existence of the United Kingdom in its current form is under unprecedented threat.
Polling Predictions Paint a Bleak Picture for Unionists
Recent polling data reveals a seismic shift in voter sentiment across the UK. The SNP is overwhelmingly favoured to secure the most seats in the Scottish parliament, while in Wales, Plaid Cymru is projected to become the largest party in the Senedd, just four seats short of a majority. Astonishingly, the Welsh Green Party is also predicted to gain 11 seats, potentially creating a majority of parties within the Welsh parliament whose official policy supports Welsh independence. In Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin currently holds the most seats, further compounding the union's fragility.
If you were an introspective member of the UK government, these trends might prompt serious reflection. However, the Starmer administration is not known for such introspection. Labour insiders view the support for pro-independence parties in Wales as a "kicking of the establishment" rather than an endorsement of breaking up the UK. They point to polling on Welsh independence, which has hovered around 30% in recent years, suggesting a lack of overwhelming public backing.
Voter Frustration Overrides Independence Advocacy
This assessment holds some truth. Many voters planning to support Plaid Cymru in May are not necessarily advocates for an independent Wales. Plaid's leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, has deliberately downplayed talk of independence, focusing instead on a "higher ambition" for Wales to win over traditional Labour voters. He recently stated, "I don't think we're quite in a place where we would win a referendum on independence." Yet, this very caution underscores a deeper issue: voters are so frustrated with the status quo that they are willing to risk the UK's dissolution.
For unionists, this should be a cause for grave concern. Three-quarters of the UK's constituent nations now have significant voter blocs that either oppose the union's continuation or are indifferent to its survival. This erosion of support highlights systemic failures in how the UK is governed.
Systemic Failures in UK Governance
The root of the problem lies in the UK's highly centralised structure, which fails to serve Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and even many parts of England. Currently, the House of Commons functions as both the UK parliament and the parliament of England, while the Prime Minister of England also leads the entire UK. This dual role creates conflicting priorities, akin to allowing the governor of California to serve as the US president simultaneously.
Funding mechanisms further exacerbate the issue. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland receive allocations based on UK government spending priorities in England, leading to inefficiencies and delays. For instance, the Welsh government often publishes its final budget nine months into the financial year due to Treasury changes in England, and it possesses fewer borrowing powers than a local council. This system is not only failing Wales but also disadvantaging English regions that must compete for individual funding pots.
Recommendations for Reform and Renewal
In early 2024, the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, led by Prof Laura McAllister and former archbishop Rowan Williams, published a report with ten recommendations to strengthen Welsh democracy and protect devolution. Key proposals include:
- Better safeguards for devolution to prevent Westminster from unilaterally scrapping Welsh democracy.
- Reduced constraints on Welsh government budget management.
- Devolution of policing and justice powers, currently held by Scotland but not Wales.
Securing the UK's future requires making it work for all its people through a bold rethink of governance. This involves transforming the state from an arcane hodgepodge of inertia and tradition into a modern, functional entity. However, the UK government likely lacks the energy and intellectual capacity for such a overhaul, preferring to focus on "bread and butter issues." Yet, as the analogy goes, trying to extinguish a house fire with a water pistol is futile; the UK's constitutional flaws directly hinder solutions to everyday problems, driving people to seek independence.
Will Hayward, a Guardian columnist, emphasises that without urgent reform, the UK risks further fragmentation. The time for action is now, before voter discontent translates into irreversible political change.
