Europe stands at a historic crossroads, facing a decision that will define its security and global standing for decades. The central question is stark: can the continent forge a unified, independent strategy to ensure Ukraine's victory against Russia, or will it falter, potentially allowing a Vladimir Putin triumph under the shadow of a returning Donald Trump?
The Looming Shadow of a Trump Presidency
The prospect of Donald Trump's return to the White House in January 2025 casts a long and ominous shadow over European security calculations. His previous admiration for Vladimir Putin and scepticism towards NATO have not been forgotten. During a recent debate, Trump pointedly refused to commit to defending NATO allies who he claims do not meet spending targets, a stance that sends shivers through capitals from the Baltic to the Black Sea.
This political reality forces a fundamental reassessment. For over two years, European support for Ukraine, while significant, has often operated under the assumption of a reliable American security umbrella. That assumption is now shattered. The continent must confront the possibility of navigating the Ukraine war without, or even against, the wishes of a key ally. The era of dependency is over; an era of strategic autonomy must begin with urgency.
Building a "War-Fighting" European Union
The required response is not incremental but revolutionary. Europe must transition from a post-war peace project to a genuine "war-fighting" union capable of sustained military and industrial support for Kyiv. This means moving beyond ad-hoc aid packages towards a long-term, collective commitment to Ukrainian victory.
Several critical steps are non-negotiable. Firstly, the European Union must significantly accelerate and expand its military production. Factories across the continent need to shift to a war footing, churning out the artillery shells, drones, and air defence systems that Ukraine desperately needs. Secondly, the bloc should seriously consider using frozen Russian sovereign assets, estimated at hundreds of billions, to directly fund Ukraine's defence and reconstruction—a move of profound strategic and symbolic importance.
Perhaps most crucially, European leaders must publicly and unequivocally define what victory means. Ambiguity only serves the Kremlin. The goal must be a free, sovereign, and secure Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders. This clarity is essential to unite public opinion, guide policy, and signal unwavering resolve to Moscow.
The High Cost of European Disunity
The alternative to decisive action is a catastrophe of historic proportions. A Putin victory in Ukraine would not end the threat; it would embolden it. The security of Poland, the Baltic states, and Moldova would be immediately and severely compromised. The credibility of European defence guarantees would lie in tatters, inviting further aggression.
Internally, failure would unleash political turmoil within the EU. Member states on the front line would feel abandoned by Western partners, fracturing the union's cohesion. The rise of pro-Kremlin factions and far-right movements, already sceptical of support for Kyiv, would be accelerated, undermining democracy from within.
The coming months are therefore a period of extreme peril and consequence. Europe's leaders face a test of their strategic vision and political courage. They must choose between a path of collective strength, ensuring Ukrainian victory and their own long-term security, or a path of disunity and delay that could lead to a devastating Russian triumph. The choice is Europe's to make, and time is running out.
