As the Iran war expands across the Middle East, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels have notably remained on the sidelines, creating significant strategic questions about their current restraint and potential future involvement in the regional conflict.
Strategic Restraint Amid Regional Escalation
While Iran has retaliated against the United States and Israel with missile and drone attacks targeting American military bases in Gulf Arab countries, disrupting trade routes and threatening regional air traffic, the Houthis have limited their response to protests and declarations condemning the conflict. This contrasts sharply with their previous military actions during the Israel-Hamas war, when they launched waves of missile and drone attacks on Israeli targets and shipping in the Red Sea.
Iran's Proxy Network Activation
Iran has asserted its influence across the Middle East through proxy forces in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. Some of Tehran's closest allies have already joined the conflict, with Hezbollah resuming strikes on Israel within two days of the initial attack on Iran, and militias linked to the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claiming drone strikes on U.S. bases in Irbil.
Analysts point to several factors behind the Houthis' current reluctance to engage directly in the conflict. These include fears of leader assassinations, internal divisions within Yemen, and uncertainties about weapons supplies following their extensive attacks during the Israel-Hamas war that depleted their stockpiles.
Military Capabilities and Strategic Calculations
The Houthis, armed by Iran, seized most of Yemen's north and its capital Sanaa in 2014, pushing the internationally recognized government into exile. While they share some political and religious ties with Iran, they follow a different doctrine of Shiite Islam and maintain operational independence from Iran's supreme leader, unlike Hezbollah and several Iraqi militias.
According to Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, "From Tehran's perspective, the Houthis have proven themselves to be a capable and effective front, able to generate real pressure." Nagi suggests the Houthi leaders' decision to distance themselves from the conflict represents a calculated choice fully coordinated with Iranian authorities.
Weapons Stockpiles and Preparation Signals
Two Houthi members of the group's media and political offices revealed that the rebels' weapons stockpile is running low after their attacks during the Israel-Hamas war, with the Iran war further impeding weapons flow. However, another official indicated the group maintains a large stockpile of drones.
Nagi observes that the Houthis appear to be building up their forces through increased recruitment, local weapons production, and sending reinforcements to Yemen's western coastline on the Red Sea, signaling preparation for potential escalation. "The decision is not about unwillingness to intervene, but about timing," Nagi explained. "Iran's broader strategy seems to be to avoid throwing all its cards on the table at once."
Potential Targets and Regional Impact
If the Houthis enter the war, analysts predict they would likely resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden while striking Israeli targets. They could also join Iran's attacks on Gulf countries, targeting U.S. military assets and interests.
Shipping offers the most immediate pressure point, with about $1 trillion worth of goods passing through the Red Sea annually before the conflict. Attacks on oil tankers would signal escalation while impacting global energy supply chains. The Houthis have previously demonstrated capability against oil infrastructure, having struck facilities in Saudi Arabia during their long-running conflict against the Saudi-led coalition.
Internal Constraints and External Pressures
Abdel-Bari Taher, a political analyst and former head of Yemen's press syndicate, notes that any decision to join the war is impacted by Yemen's internal situation, including recent deadly clashes in south Yemen, public opposition in Sanaa to joining the conflict, and heightened caution among Houthi leaders following high-profile assassinations.
Two Houthi officials revealed that the United States has sent warnings via Omani mediators against participating in the war, and Houthi political and security leaders have been alerted that their cellphones are under surveillance by U.S. and Israeli intelligence. Fearing potential assassinations, Houthi leaders have been instructed to avoid public appearances.
Strategic Timing and Local Considerations
Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House in London, suggests the Houthis lack both the military capabilities and internal Yemeni interest that would compel them to join the war directly. The group appears committed to a ceasefire with the U.S. brokered by Oman last year.
"They hope to fight, especially with Israel, but they can't be the ones to fire the first shot," al-Muslimi said. He believes the Houthis would likely need a local Yemeni cause to join the fighting—a reason that would strengthen support among their domestic base. As al-Muslimi notes: "The Houthis are a local group that Iran uses and supports, but didn't create."
The Houthis' involvement remains a distinct possibility should the conflict widen significantly or if they perceive an existential threat to Iran, such as significant deterioration in Tehran's military capabilities. Their strategic timing reflects both their operational constraints and Iran's broader regional calculus in managing multiple proxy forces across the Middle East theater.
