Donald Trump has declared that the war in Iran will end "soon," claiming there is "practically nothing left to target" following air strikes conducted by the United States and Israel earlier this month. The US President's remarks signal a potential exit strategy from the intervention, as he emphasised the conflict's progress and his control over its duration.
Shifting War Goals and Mixed Messaging
Since ordering strikes on Tehran alongside Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump has offered varying justifications for the military action. Initially, the administration cited goals such as preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, protecting the US and Europe from threats, and even regime change. However, Trump's latest comments to Axios suggest a focus on reassuring the American public that the US will avoid another protracted Middle East war.
Trump stated, "The war is going great. We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period." He added, "Any time I want it to end, it will end," highlighting his perceived authority over the conflict's conclusion. This has contributed to mixed messaging about the war's longevity, unsettling some of his political base who voted for him in 2024 based on promises to avoid new foreign entanglements.
Impact on Oil Prices and Military Assessments
The intervention has led to rising oil prices, with suppliers expressing concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump addressed this by calling the fluctuations "a matter of war," acknowledging the economic repercussions. Meanwhile, the US military reports that Iran's missile attacks have decreased by approximately 90% since the conflict began nearly 11 days ago.
Estimates suggest Iran initially possessed up to 100,000 drones, 5,000 short-range missiles, and around 2,500 ballistic missiles. Air strikes have reportedly destroyed 60% of Iran's launchers, leaving about 2,410 ballistic missiles and up to 200 missile launchers operational. Trump has wavered on terminology, describing the operation as both a war and an excursion, stating, "It's an excursion that will keep us out of a war... for them it's a war, for us it's turned out to be easier than we thought."
Broader Context and Reactions
Trump's shifting war aims have met with scepticism, particularly among supporters wary of prolonged military engagements. His previous comments framed the conflict as retribution, saying Iran is "paying for 47 years of death and destruction they caused." The administration launched the war without a comprehensive public case, now grappling with both strategic and economic challenges as the situation evolves.
