Most eyes will be on the Makerfield by-election on Thursday night to see if Andy Burnham wins, a result that could propel him into No 10. It is largely a two-horse race between Labour and Reform UK, with the Greater Manchester Mayor expected to emerge victorious. However, another by-election, one of two taking place on June 18, some 350 miles further north in Aberdeen, could deliver the most unexpected result. Quietly, Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives might spring a surprise.
Conservative Confidence Grows
Confidence is building within party ranks that they could actually win, wresting the seat from the SNP. They have been throwing the kitchen sink at the constituency in recent weeks after Stephen Flynn's election to the Scottish Parliament left voters needing to choose his Westminster successor.
So why do the Tories have a chance when they are polling so dismally nationally and performed so poorly in the recent Scottish parliamentary elections? The answer, put simply, is oil and gas.
The Oil and Gas Factor
The dominant issue in Aberdeen politics is not independence but the future of the oil and gas industry and the jobs it sustains. Ed Miliband's Net Zero zealotry and SNP neglect have accelerated the North Sea oil and gas industry's decline, and the Granite City is bearing the brunt. Whatever the Tories' standing elsewhere in Scotland, turning this by-election into a referendum on this issue gives them a fighting chance.
Momentum is with them, largely thanks to Mrs Badenoch's two recent high-profile constituency visits. She is planning a third before polling day, a further sign that she feels the seat is there for the taking.
Local Reactions
The Tory leader has claimed that people in Aberdeen have pleaded with her to “save the city,” while candidate Douglas Lumsden says he is “quietly confident” about the result.
Aberdeen South's recent political history is volatile. The Tories gained the seat from Labour in 1992, before it returned to Labour from 1997 to 2015, with the Lib Dems as the main challengers. The SNP won it in their post-referendum sweep, only to be clawed back two years later by the Conservatives again. Flynn turned it yellow in 2019 and was narrowly re-elected in 2024, as the Conservatives plummeted from second to fourth. But last month they came only 1,244 votes behind Flynn in the near-equivalent Holyrood seat.
Expert Analysis
Polling guru Professor John Curtice said this week that he thinks Aberdeen South is “potentially competitive” because of the oil and gas issue. But while by-elections “sometimes produce unusual results,” he said “it's for the SNP to lose.” The Peter Murrell scandal, in which the former SNP chief executive pleaded guilty to embezzling over £400,000 of party funds, is also likely to impact the outcome.
And much like Makerfield, where Restore Britain is siphoning votes away from Reform, Nigel Farage's party could do the same to the Tories in Aberdeen, leaving the final result too close to call.
