Copenhagen's Political Earthquake: A Lesson for Labour
In a historic political shift that should resonate deeply within Britain's Labour Party, Copenhagen has elected its first non-Social Democrat mayor in over a century. On 18 November 2025, Sisse Marie Welling from the Green Left (Socialistisk Folkeparti/SF) secured the lord mayor position, marking a dramatic departure from Denmark's traditional political landscape.
This development delivers a stark warning to centre-left parties across Europe, particularly Keir Starmer's Labour government, which has been attempting to emulate Denmark's stringent immigration policies. The election result demonstrates that when social democrats move rightward on sociocultural issues, they risk alienating their progressive base without gaining significant support from far-right voters.
The Flawed 'Danish Model' Exposed
For years, the so-called 'Danish model' has been held up as a template for electoral success by centre-left advisers and strategists. This approach, championed by Danish Social Democrat leader Mette Frederiksen, involves adopting hardline positions on immigration to win back voters perceived as drifting toward far-right parties.
However, research consistently shows this strategy fails on multiple fronts. Adopting far-right positions does not lead to electoral success for centrist parties nor does it significantly damage far-right parties. Despite this evidence, Britain's Labour government recently introduced policies mirroring Denmark's strict asylum rules, ignoring internal opposition and worsening polling predictions.
The Danish Social Democrats' electoral performance under Frederiksen reveals the model's fundamental flaws. In the 2019 general election, the party actually lost 0.4% of the vote, only regaining the premiership through specific bloc politics. Their modest 1.6% gain in 2022 required governing with the mainstream right to remain in power. Currently, the party polls just above 20% and is expected to reach a historic low in next year's legislative election.
Progressive Voters Abandoning Centre-Left
The Copenhagen result highlights a crucial dynamic: progressive voters, particularly younger ones, are abandoning social democratic parties that compromise on sociocultural issues. These voters want parties that are consistently leftwing on both economic and cultural matters.
This pattern is clearly visible in Britain, where Keir Starmer's attempts to win over Reform UK voters are failing miserably as Labour loses support to the Greens and Liberal Democrats. The strategy of chasing mythical 'left behind' voters while taking progressive urban strongholds for granted is proving electorally disastrous.
Meanwhile, the far right in Denmark hasn't been defeated by the Social Democrats' nativist turn. While the Danish People's party (DPP) was already declining before Frederiksen's ascent, new far-right parties like the New Right (NB) and Denmark Democrats (DD) have emerged. Together, DPP and DD now poll close to the DPP's record high in 2015.
Copenhagen represents the type of multicultural, progressive city that has become social democracy's last stronghold across Europe. Rather than cherishing these cities and voters, centre-left parties have increasingly taken them for granted, with some politicians even insulting them as 'woke warriors' - rhetoric borrowed directly from the far right.
The consequence has been the rise of green and new-left parties like SF and Unity List in Copenhagen, along with reformed communist parties in other European cities like Austria's Graz. These progressive competitors differ from Social Democrats not just in their more outspoken leftwing agendas but also in their younger electorates, including many voters from minority backgrounds.
The lesson for Labour is clear: stop chasing far-right voters. This unsuccessful strategy causes progressive voters to leave while preventing the rejuvenation of ageing electorates. To remain relevant, social democratic parties must promote confident progressive agendas on both cultural and economic issues. Failure to do so will cost them their remaining political strongholds and potential future supporters - the real lesson from Denmark's failed experiment.
