Labour faces the "drastic" loss of more than 75 per cent of the council seats it is defending across England next week, according to a devastating new assessment from a leading polling expert. Conservative peer Robert Hayward predicts that Sir Keir Starmer's party will lose 1,850 seats in the local elections, while Nigel Farage's Reform UK party will be the biggest winners, gaining 1,550 seats, and the Greens will pick up 500.
Labour is also predicted to lose out in its former fiefdoms in Wales and Scotland, where Plaid Cymru is set to be the largest party and the SNP just shy of a majority. Lord Hayward said the scale of the losses would be "bad news for Sir Keir and Labour", which is defending 2,557 seats. "I'd use the word 'drastic'," he told The Independent. "It reflects the pincer movement that Labour are facing between the Greens in one direction and Reform in the other."
He pointed to recent reports that a cabinet minister had said that Sir Keir's top team would be compelled to take action to remove the PM if the party lost more than 1,500 seats. "That would be the cut-off for a collective nervous breakdown among cabinet colleagues," the minister was quoted as saying. "Well, the figure is well above 1,500," Lord Hayward added.
The elections come after a torrid month for the prime minister, who has been battling the Mandelson scandal, the fallout from the war in the Middle East, and fears over the conflict's effect on the economy. Lord Hayward also said that the result would give Reform "a big boost". But, he added, "if you look at the [polling] figures last year they would have expected to gain about 2,000 seats". He said the Greens would be "very pleased, because they have the momentum".
But he warned that winning seats could be a poisoned chalice for both parties. "It will raise expectations. It depends whether they take control of councils, either by overall control or by being the lead party in a coalition. As Reform have discovered, government is not always easy."
For the Tories, a "reasonable proportion" of the 600 seats Lord Hayward projects they will lose stem from the counties that should have been fought last year, such as Essex, though he said the party would still be "disappointed". He also forecast that the Lib Dems would gain 150 seats, but said they would need to gain councils to be involved "in the conversation".
Dr Hannah Bunting, co-director of the University of Exeter Elections Centre, who also released similar predictions, said the result would ultimately "be a continuation of the fragmentation we've witnessed over the last few years. At first this only damaged the then governing Conservatives, but looks to be extending to the now governing Labour Party too."
Ahead of the polls, the prime minister's political spokesperson said: "This local election comes down to a simple choice: Labour on your side, with your local Labour council working in partnership with a Labour government, or Nigel Farage and Reform, who would put your family, your NHS and your community at risk."
Asked about Sir Keir's message to MPs who may be confronted with dire results, the spokesperson declined to "get ahead" of the outcome, and highlighted the government's record on "giving more rights to workers", investing in public services, and fighting child poverty.
