Labour's Gorton and Denton Stronghold Under Siege as Greens Surge in Polls
With less than a week remaining until the critical by-election in Greater Manchester's Gorton and Denton constituency, Labour is confronting one of its most significant electoral challenges in recent history. The seat, a Labour bastion since 1974, now faces an unprecedented threat from both the Green Party and Reform, according to new polling data.
Mixed Polling Predictions Paint a Tense Picture
Current polling presents a complex and varied forecast for the final outcome. While most MRP polls suggest Reform is leading Labour, the first constituency-specific poll by Omnisis reveals a surprising twist: the Green Party has edged ahead. This poll of 452 local residents shows Green candidate Hannah Spencer at 20% support, narrowly surpassing Reform's 17% and Labour's 15%.
Notably, 27% of voters remain undecided, and 13% indicate they will abstain from voting entirely. This substantial pool of uncertain voters means all candidates must intensify their efforts to secure victory in the final days of campaigning.
Detailed Breakdown of Polling Data
The polling landscape is fragmented, with different models offering conflicting predictions:
- Electoral Calculus projects Reform at 31.7%, Greens at 23.4%, and Labour at 22.9%.
- Polling Report forecasts Labour holding the seat with 33.95%, followed by Reform at 27.98% and Greens at 20.45%.
- Britain Predicts estimates Reform at 32%, Labour at 26%, and Greens at 22%.
These MRP polls, which rely on national trends, demographics, and historical results, do not account for potential tactical voting—a factor that could significantly benefit the Green Party. Labour MPs have privately expressed concerns that the Greens may gain from Labour's declining national popularity and an anti-Reform tactical vote.
Historical Context and Recent Trends
The constituency, reorganised as Denton and Reddish in 1983 and renamed Gorton and Denton in 2024, has been represented by only two Labour MPs since its inception: Andrew Bennett and, from 2005 until recently, Andrew Gwynne. In the 2024 general election, Labour retained the seat with a majority of 13,413 and 50.8% of the vote, though this marked a sharp decline from 2019's 22,175 majority and 67.2% vote share.
Reform secured second place in 2024 with 14.1% of the vote, a 9.2-point increase from 2019, while the Greens came third with 13.2%, up 10.7 points. Turnout also dropped from 61.7% to 46.8%, contributing to Labour's 16.4-point reduction in support. This trend of diminishing Labour dominance is a major worry for party officials as the by-election approaches.
Candidates and Campaign Dynamics
Labour has selected Manchester city councillor Angeliki Stogia as its candidate in a bid to defend the seat and avert a politically damaging defeat. Reform has nominated GB News presenter Matt Goodwin, while the Green Party is represented by Hannah Spencer, a local councillor and plumber. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats trail behind, alongside George Galloway's Workers Party of Britain.
The intense, short-notice campaigns in southeast Manchester are reaching their climax, with all major parties vying for every possible vote. The outcome on 26 February could signal a historic shift, ending Labour's half-century grip on the constituency and reshaping the political landscape in Greater Manchester.
