Marseille's Mayoral Election: A Crucial Gauge for France's Political Climate
In the bustling markets of southern Marseille, voters like Nathalie, a market trader in her forties, express growing concerns over safety and crime. "Our cash tin was stolen right here at Christmas time," she recounted, while preparing paella rice last week. "I've had a bag stolen too. It tends to happen at the end of the day, around 7pm. I worry for the elderly grandmas. I had a necklace ripped off me in the city centre once." Nathalie, who typically supports the traditional right, now sees Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) as a viable alternative. "We've never tried them, so now we can give them a chance. I hope they can do something on security," she added.
A Shift in Voter Allegiances
This sentiment is echoed by Suzanne, an 80-year-old retired pharmacist shopping in a southern neighbourhood of the Mediterranean port city. Having spent a lifetime backing conservative figures like Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, she, like many affluent neighbours, is turning to the far right. "I've never voted RN before, but I'm going to try it," Suzanne stated. "They are more energetic and efficient than the others." On Sunday, France will participate in the first round of local elections, serving as a critical barometer for the political landscape ahead of next year's pivotal presidential election. With Emmanuel Macron's two terms concluding, the future leadership of Europe's second-largest economy remains uncertain.
Marseille, France's second city with a rich multicultural history and 5 million annual tourists, has emerged as a focal point in this campaign. Benoît Payan, the leftwing mayor, has warned that the far right is polling sufficiently high to potentially seize city hall. "If Marseille falls into the RN's hands, it would be an earthquake for France," Payan asserted. His Printemps Marseillais coalition, comprising Socialists and Greens, secured the city in 2020 after a quarter-century of traditional right rule.
National Rally's Ambitious Campaign
Jordan Bardella, the RN party head and a prospective 2027 presidential candidate, expressed optimism during a recent tour of Marseille, declaring, "Victory is possible." The RN has centred its platform on municipal policing and security, addressing the city's deadly drug-trafficking gangs, which the far-right compares to a South American-style mini narco-state. Franck Allisio, the RN's mayoral candidate, emphasised this focus while canvassing in Marseille's southern 9th arrondissement. "This is about bringing back order," he proclaimed.
Allisio, a 45-year-old member of parliament and former ministerial adviser under Sarkozy, joined Le Pen in 2015. His proposals for Marseille include a timed-access pass to local beaches for families and older residents, aimed at excluding "delinquents ... listening to loud music and smoking joints." The RN's role as the primary opposition challenger in Marseille is notable, as French local elections, especially in major cities, have not traditionally been the far right's forte. For two decades, the largest city governed by the RN has been Perpignan, with a population of 121,000. Capturing Marseille, home to nearly 900,000 people, would be heralded by the party as a stride toward winning the French presidency next year.
Marseille's Complex Social Fabric
Unlike Paris, Marseille has cultivated a substantial far-right vote over many years. In the 2024 snap general election, the RN and its allies tripled their parliamentary seats in the city, securing three of seven positions. Marseille remains one of France's most segregated urban areas, marked by a significant income disparity between wealthy neighbourhoods and low-income communities in high-rise estates or dilapidated central buildings. Over a quarter of residents live below the poverty line, and more than 13% of main residences are classified as slums.
Politicians across the spectrum frame the tight mayoral race as a battle for Marseille's identity. Historically, the city has welcomed immigrants from North Africa, Italy, Armenia, and Comoros, boasting a large Muslim community and one of Europe's biggest urban Jewish populations. The left condemns the RN as an anti-immigration party, labelling it racist and xenophobic, and argues it is incompatible with the city's ethos. In a symbolic move, the leftwing city hall recently renamed a boulevard after Ibrahim Ali, a 17-year-old high school student fatally shot in 1995 by an activist posting posters for Jean-Marie Le Pen's Front National, now the RN.
Local Dynamics and Broader Implications
In northern Marseille's densely populated 13th and 14th arrondissements, a mix of historic villages and high-rise estates, the far-right previously held sway. Stéphane Ravier won the district mayor position for the Front National in 2014, retaining it until 2017. Convicted this year for an illegal conflict of interest involving his son's hiring, he is appealing to France's highest court. His niece, Sandrine D'Angio, who succeeded him and faces similar charges, denies wrongdoing and is appealing; she is currently the RN's local candidate.
Tina Biard-Sansonetti, the Printemps Marseillais candidate for district mayor, criticised the RN's past governance: "The RN already ran this sector of Marseille – daily life didn't get better, on the contrary it got worse." Agnès, a centrist voter and local childminder, noted a widespread disillusionment: "There's feeling of disgust towards all politicians in general that could affect voter turn-out." Mohamed Arouel, a 21-year-old law student and Printemps Marseillais councillor candidate, emphasised the importance of youth engagement: "The RN's values are the absolute antithesis of this very mixed neighbourhood."
National Context and Future Prospects
The Marseille mayoral contest mirrors broader French issues, particularly access to public services. Five years ago, Macron pledged €5 billion (£4.3 billion) for a special Marseille plan to address service gaps, including dilapidated schools, patchy transport, and resources against drug crime. Printemps Marseillais reports that 27 schools have been built or renovated, and municipal police have doubled to 700 officers. However, an RN victory is not assured. The outcome hinges on second-round runoffs and potential alliances, such as between Payan's left and Jean-Luc Mélenchon's radical left La France Insoumise, to form an anti-RN front. The RN has gained from a weak campaign by the traditional right.
Marseille is among several southern French cities targeted by the far-right. In Nice, France's fifth-largest city, Éric Ciotti, who left the traditional right's Les Républicains to ally with Le Pen in 2024, seeks to oust his rival Christian Estrosi. Vincent Martigny, a politics professor at Côte d'Azur University, observed that in both Marseille and Nice, a grassroots union of right and far-right voters is pivotal. "Voters from Les Républicains party – whose leadership has radicalised – are thinking: 'There's no problem voting RN because we're pretty close on the most important issues'," he explained.
Martigny cautioned that local elections often reflect local concerns rather than national ideology, but acknowledged the RN would portray any win in Nice or Marseille as evidence of a "national dynamic" or "stepping stone" to the presidency. Back in northern Marseille, Monique Cordier, canvassing for the leftwing mayor, remained optimistic: "An RN win is not at all a given. I frankly don't think they'll win. It's not in the Marseille mentality to be racist." As France votes, the results in Marseille will offer crucial insights into the nation's political trajectory.
