Veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove has issued a stark warning that former President Donald Trump's aggressive immigration enforcement could backfire politically, jeopardising Republican-held Congressional districts in the traditionally conservative stronghold of Texas.
Latino Vote Shift Puts Texas Districts in Play
Rove, a former senior advisor to President George W. Bush, told Fox News that the party's significant gains with Latino voters in the 2024 election are now under threat. He pointed to recent ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) raids as a key factor driving this potential reversal. "This is a variable group whose movement into the Republican column in 2024 helped elect Donald Trump to a second term and helped Republicans hold the Senate and the House," Rove stated.
This warning is underscored by polling data. While Pew Research indicated approximately 50 percent of Latino voters backed Trump in 2024, more recent surveys show around 70 percent now disapprove of his performance during his first year back in the Oval Office.
"It’s a problem and we’re going to see it here in Texas," Rove added. "You can just see the support for Republicans in Texas diminishing, despite the fact that initially there was enormous support for the action in securing the border."
The Precarious 2026 Electoral Map
The political stakes are high, with every Congressional seat in Texas up for election in 2026, alongside one of its Senate seats. Rove identified the risk lying in split districts, where Trump secured a victory but a Democratic candidate narrowly retained a House seat.
He specifically cited districts like Texas's 34th Congressional District, which Trump won by a slim margin. Another example is the 28th District, where centrist Democrat Henry Cuellar, who received a presidential pardon from Trump on past money laundering charges, chose not to switch parties.
"If his support is softening among Hispanics, that makes it unlikely that we’re going to be able to knock off an incumbent Democrat," Rove concluded, highlighting the direct electoral consequence of waning Latino support.
Polling Reveals Broad Discontent with Immigration Agenda
This analysis aligns with earlier polling. A November DailyMail/JL Partners survey found Trump's immigration policies ranked among the top three reasons for declining voter approval. Notably, the poll indicated Trump's net approval rating on ICE operations had fallen by four points, even before recent high-profile enforcement actions and subsequent protests.
The demographic shift is pronounced, with Hispanic and young voters showing the largest drop in support, each group now giving Trump just a 36 percent approval rating. Immigration attorney Benjamin Peña commented on the human impact, stating, "We're watching the immigrant community be policed and surveilled inhumanely and without regard... the human element plays a key role."
Conversely, the White House defended the administration's record. Spokeswoman Abigail Jackson listed achievements including securing the border, tackling inflation, lowering drug prices, and deporting criminal illegal aliens. "He's already delivered on many of the promises he was elected to enact," she stated.
However, critics like progressive operative Bradley Beychok of American Bridge offered a counter-narrative, claiming Trump had failed to fix core issues and blaming his trade policies for economic troubles. "Many have asked when would people see it's 'Don the Con' and the answer is now," Beychok told the Daily Mail.
With an overall voter disapproval margin of 10 percent in the cited poll, and 41 percent of those disapproving specifically citing ICE's role in enforcing Trump's agenda, the political fallout from the administration's immigration crackdown appears to be crystallising as a major vulnerability ahead of the next election cycle.
