SA Liberals Embrace One Nation Preferences in Bid for Election Victory
In a significant shift from historical principles, the South Australian Liberal Party has opted to direct preferences to One Nation ahead of the Labor Party in the upcoming state election. This strategic decision, aimed at bolstering conservative chances against the heavily favoured government of Peter Malinauskas, marks a departure from the principled stand taken by former Prime Minister John Howard, who once demanded One Nation be placed last on Liberal how-to-vote cards.
Liberal opposition leader Ashton Hurn defended the move, stating, "This is not a vote of confidence in One Nation – in fact, far from it. But you've got to put people somewhere on the ballot. That's the decision we've made, and this is a vote of no confidence in the government." Despite One Nation's refusal to reciprocate with a preference swap, running open tickets instead, the Liberals proceeded, a move that few political observers found surprising given recent trends.
Historical Context and Political Expediency
John Howard's firm stance against Pauline Hanson now seems a distant memory as present-day Liberals prioritise political expediency over principle. This mirrors the 2025 federal election, where the Peter Dutton-led Liberals brokered a preference deal with Hanson, hoping to secure outer suburban and regional seats. That deal not only failed to win seats but also damaged the Liberal brand, exposing the party to accusations of cosying up to Hanson's controversial views.
Hurn's Liberals risk a similar outcome in South Australia, with potential reputational harm outweighing any electoral gains. Election analyst Antony Green has cast doubt on the impact of this preference strategy, suggesting it is unlikely to alter the final results in the 47 lower house seats. He explained that in seats where the Liberals drop to third place, Labor's primary vote is expected to remain strong enough to prevent One Nation from leapfrogging into contention.
Specific Seat Dynamics and Broader Implications
For instance, in the safe Labor seat of Elizabeth in Adelaide's northern suburbs, Green predicts that even if One Nation moves into second place, Labor will still secure victory due to robust support. In seats where One Nation poses a genuine threat, such as Narungga on the Yorke Peninsula, the Liberals have directed preferences to independent MP Fraser Ellis, a former Liberal, ahead of One Nation's candidate, indicating a nuanced approach in key areas.
If Green's forecasts hold, the primary consequences of the Liberal decision will be reputational. By associating with Hanson and One Nation state leader Cory Bernardi, the Liberals align themselves with a platform known for hardline anti-immigration, anti-climate action, and anti-inclusion stances. Historically, Liberals might have recoiled from such comparisons, fearing backlash from traditional urban voters, but current dynamics show a shift towards embracing right-wing elements.
Internal Party Shifts and Electoral Strategy
Some Liberals, both in South Australia and nationally, are leaning into this strategy, believing that to defeat One Nation, the party must adopt a version of its appeal. Right-wing Liberal senator Alex Antic has been instrumental in pushing this transformation within the SA branch, aiming to remake it in his image. As the Liberals drift further to the right, Malinauskas and Labor are left to occupy the political centre ground, which remains the key battleground for winning elections in Australia.
This preference deal underscores a broader trend of political realignment, where short-term electoral tactics may compromise long-term brand integrity. The outcome of Saturday's election will reveal whether this gamble pays off or further entrenches the Liberals' reputational challenges.
