Swalwell's Sudden Exit Upends California Governor Race
The race to succeed Gavin Newsom as California's governor has been plunged into disarray following the shocking downfall of Congressman Eric Swalwell. The Democratic contest, already described as bizarre and lacking star power, was thrown into chaos when Swalwell suspended his campaign amid serious allegations of sexual misconduct.
Allegations and Immediate Fallout
On Sunday, Swalwell announced he was halting his gubernatorial bid after multiple women came forward with accusations against him. One woman alleged he raped her in a West Hollywood hotel in 2018, while others claimed he sent unwanted explicit photos and messages. Swalwell has vehemently denied all allegations, stating through his lawyer that he "categorically and unequivocally denies each and every allegation of sexual misconduct and assault."
The reaction was swift and severe. Prominent backers, including elected officials, unions, and donors, abandoned him en masse. Campaign staff resigned, and by Tuesday, facing potential expulsion, Swalwell formally resigned his seat in Congress. In his resignation statement, he apologized for "mistakes in judgment" but vowed to fight what he called false allegations.
A Race in Complete Disarray
"This really tosses the table over," said Kim Nalder, a political science professor at Sacramento State. With the candidate filing deadline passed and ballots set to arrive in mailboxes early next month for the 2 June primary, California Democrats are scrambling to reassess their options. Swalwell had been gaining momentum, scooping up high-profile endorsements and edging ahead in polls, casting himself as a Trump opponent ready to lead California.
Garry South, a veteran Democratic strategist who has worked on four California gubernatorial campaigns, called this the state's "most curious" governor's race in recent memory. The Democratic field lacks an obvious successor or a big personality that California voters typically expect. "It's just really a morass," South remarked.
Democratic Candidates Scramble for Support
Amid the upheaval, Swalwell's seven Democratic rivals are vying to win over his former supporters. Early indicators suggest Katie Porter, a former US representative, and billionaire Tom Steyer are most likely to absorb these voters, though both face skepticism from Democratic constituents. Other candidates, including former US health secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and San José mayor Matt Mahan, also see an opening.
Porter, once seen as a frontrunner, has faced negative viral moments questioning her temperament. Steyer has poured roughly $120 million of his own money into advertising, propelling him toward the front but not securing a decisive lead. Mahan has gained outside support, with a Super Pac reporting new donations, including a $1 million contribution from developer Rick Caruso.
The Republican Factor and Primary System
The turmoil has heightened fears among Democrats that a fractured field could lead to two Republicans advancing to the November general election under California's "jungle" primary system, where the top two vote-getters proceed regardless of party. However, analysts note that Donald Trump's endorsement of Steve Hilton over Chad Bianco on the Republican side may consolidate GOP votes, making a Democratic lockout unlikely.
Dan Schnur, a political communication professor at UC Berkeley and USC, stated, "Donald Trump has all-but ensured that California will have a Democratic governor next year. Eric Swalwell has just made it much more difficult to figure out who that Democrat is going to be."
Polling and Future Uncertainty
A March poll by UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies showed Swalwell and Porter each with 13% support among California voters, followed by Steyer at 10%. Republicans Hilton and Bianco led with 17% and 16%, respectively. Christian Grose, a political science professor at USC, estimates the chances of a Republican-only general election at 5-8%, with Democrats holding an advantage in the blue state.
As Democrats return to square one, the race remains fluid and unpredictable. "It's a crazy election," Grose said. "Who knows what comes next?"
