Thailand's Conservative Party Secures Surprise Election Victory
Thailand's ruling conservative Bhumjaithai party has achieved a stunning victory in the country's general election, positioning Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul to remain in power. Unofficial results from approximately 94 percent of polling stations indicate the party secured roughly 193 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives. This outcome leaves Bhumjaithai short of the 251 seats required to govern independently, setting the stage for intensive coalition negotiations in the coming days.
Election Results and Political Landscape
The election, conducted on Sunday, witnessed a turnout of about 65 percent, which was notably lower than the previous election in 2023. The progressive People's Party secured second place with 118 seats, despite leading most pre-election surveys. This party achieved a clean sweep of all constituencies in Bangkok and dominated surrounding provinces, while also topping the party-list vote with approximately 3.8 million more ballots than Bhumjaithai.
Pheu Thai, the populist party historically linked to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, finished third with 74 seats, marking a disappointing performance for a movement that has frequently dominated Thai elections. Analysts widely anticipate that Pheu Thai will accept an invitation to join a Bhumjaithai-led coalition if such an offer is extended. A collection of smaller parties collectively won 115 seats, according to calculations based on Election Commission data.
Nationalist Sentiment and Border Tensions
Political analysts attribute Bhumjaithai's success to a surge of nationalist fervour sparked by a three-week border clash with Cambodia in December, coupled with deep-rooted patronage networks extending beyond Bangkok and other major urban centres. Napon Jatusripitak, director of the Center for Politics and Geopolitics at Thailand Future, noted that while the outcome diverged from earlier polling, it was not entirely unexpected.
"The result may have resolved a recurring dilemma in Thai politics, whereby conservative interests have repeatedly intervened to curtail democratic politics after losing at the ballot box. Whether this configuration produces genuine stability, however, remains to be seen," Jatusripitak commented.
Prime Minister's Response and Policy Pledges
Reacting to the election outcome, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul described it as "a victory for all Thais." When questioned about forming a government, he emphasised the need for a strong administration but stated he would await the final count. "We need a strong government," he asserted.
Charnvirakul reiterated hardline pledges connected to the border dispute with Cambodia, declaring, "I will still have to build the wall. I must keep strengthening the military's capabilities. I believe Thai soldiers can win against anyone. And I still believe we need to keep the border checkpoints closed, not open them." He previously indicated that, if returned to power, incumbent ministers for finance, foreign affairs, and commerce would retain their positions.
Constitutional Referendum and Market Reaction
Alongside the parliamentary vote, Thai citizens participated in a referendum regarding whether parliament should be authorised to begin drafting a new constitution to replace the 2017 charter established under military rule. Voters overwhelmingly supported the proposal, with nearly two-thirds favouring the replacement of a charter implemented after a 2014 military coup, which critics argue granted excessive power to an undemocratic senate.
Financial markets responded positively to the election results, with Thai shares rising approximately 3 percent to their highest level in over a year as concerns about renewed political instability diminished. The People's Party has explicitly ruled out joining a coalition led by Anutin Charnvirakul and stated it would not attempt to assemble a rival administration.
Background and Political Context
Anutin Charnvirakul has served as prime minister since September. He dissolved parliament in December, less than 100 days into his term, after facing the threat of a no-confidence vote following the removal of his predecessor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, over an ethics breach linked to relations with Cambodia. Flooding incidents and financial scandals had previously eroded his popularity before the border dispute allowed him to reposition himself as a wartime leader, campaigning on national security and economic stimulus platforms.
The implementation of a new constitution is expected to take at least two years, requiring two additional referendums to endorse both the drafting process and the final text. This election marks the first clear nationwide victory for a conservative party in several years, reshaping Thailand's political landscape amid ongoing economic challenges and regional tensions.
