New official figures reveal a starkly divided picture of migration to the United Kingdom, with legal net immigration falling sharply while the number of people seeking asylum reaches a record high.
A Tale of Two Trends: Falling Net Migration, Rising Asylum Claims
According to the Office for National Statistics, net immigration fell to 204,000 in the year to June. This level mirrors the norm seen in the years preceding the EU referendum, a period when such numbers were considered too high by a majority of the public and contributed to the Leave campaign's victory.
This latest figure appears remarkably low compared to the peak of the post-Brexit surge under Boris Johnson, when net immigration hit 944,000 in the year to March 2023. The decline in legal immigration was widely anticipated after the previous Conservative government introduced visa restrictions, particularly targeting the large cohort arriving on health and care visas.
However, separate data from the Home Office paints a contrasting image for asylum. The statistics show that 110,000 people claimed refugee status in the year to September, surpassing the previous peak of 103,000 recorded under the Labour government in 2002.
The Channel Crossings and Public Perception
A significant driver of the asylum numbers is the persistent flow of small boats across the English Channel. The Home Office reported that 51,000 people arrived by irregular routes in the year to September, with 46,000 of them making the journey by dinghy – a staggering 53 per cent increase on the previous year.
This visible form of migration is likely influencing public opinion. Research from the think tank British Future indicates that most of the British public believes immigration is still rising, despite the official fall in net migration.
Sunder Katwala, the director of British Future, stated, "This is another significant drop in net migration, but research shows this has not cut through to the public, who still think immigration is going up." He described falling immigration as "the best-kept secret in British politics" and urged the government to engage in a more realistic debate about moderate immigration levels.
The Government's Uphill Challenge
The figures present a complex challenge for the current government. While legal migration is now falling towards pre-referendum levels, the record number of asylum claims and the high visibility of small boat crossings dominate the narrative.
In September, 36,000 asylum seekers were being housed in hotels, a number that has risen by 2 per cent over the past year. The government's task is to convince the public it has control over the immigration system, a goal that proved elusive for the previous administration.
Keir Starmer and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood now face the difficult task of succeeding where Rishi Sunak, Suella Braverman, and James Cleverly failed: bringing down asylum numbers and managing public perception in the face of these conflicting statistical trends.
