Net migration to the United Kingdom has experienced a dramatic decline, falling to its lowest level in four years and standing at more than three-quarters below its record high in 2023, according to the latest official statistics.
Key Numbers: A Steep Decline
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) data reveals that net migration to the UK was an estimated 204,000 in the year to June 2025. This figure represents a substantial drop of 69% from the 649,000 recorded in the year to June 2024. It is the lowest 12-month total since 2021 and a staggering 78% decrease from the record high of 944,000 in the year to March 2023.
Net migration is the balance between long-term immigration and emigration. In the year to June 2025, an estimated 898,000 people immigrated to the UK, while 693,000 emigrated, resulting in the net figure of 204,000 after rounding.
What's Driving the Sharp Drop?
The steep fall is part of a sustained downward trend that began in 2023, driven by a combination of factors.
Firstly, there has been a significant reduction in arrivals through government humanitarian schemes for British Nationals from Hong Kong and those fleeing the war in Ukraine. These programmes, launched in 2021 and 2022, saw an initial spike in applications which has since steadily decreased.
Secondly, there has been a marked decline in non-EU nationals arriving for work and study, which was the primary driver of the previous surge in migration. The ONS reported a steady decrease in long-term immigration for these categories since spring 2023.
Only 288,000 non-EU nationals moved to the UK for study in the year to June 2025, a 25% drop from the previous year and 39% lower than two years ago. The decline for work-related immigration was even more pronounced, with 171,000 non-EU nationals arriving, down 61% on the previous 12 months.
Thirdly, emigration from the UK has been on an upward trajectory. A total of 693,000 people left the UK long-term in the year to June 2025, up from 650,000 the year before and 486,000 in the year to June 2022. This increase is largely driven by non-EU nationals, particularly former students from India and China, leaving the country.
The Impact of Policy Changes
The dramatic reduction in people arriving to study and work is widely attributed to a series of policy changes initiated by the previous Conservative government and continued by the current Labour administration.
Key measures included restricting most overseas students from bringing family members from January 2024. This was followed in March 2024 by a similar ban for care workers, and in April 2024 by increases to the salary threshold for Skilled Worker visas and the income requirement for family visas.
The effect of these policies is starkly visible in the data. The number of dependants arriving with non-EU students plummeted by 85% between the year to June 2024 and the year to June 2025. Similarly, the number of work dependants fell by 65%.
Future Trends and Expert Commentary
The Labour government introduced further changes in July 2025, including ending overseas recruitment for care workers and another increase to the skilled worker visa salary threshold. Home Office data already indicates a decrease in work visa applications since the summer, suggesting net migration is likely to fall further in subsequent ONS estimates.
However, experts caution that the long-term sustainability of this decline is uncertain. Dr Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, noted: "Net migration has fallen substantially, but this will not necessarily be sustained long term. In particular, negative net migration of EU citizens who arrived before Brexit is currently still subtracting quite a lot from the figures, and this won’t go on forever."
Historically, the latest net migration estimate of 204,000 is the lowest since the year to March 2021, when it was 132,000. In the pre-pandemic years, net migration typically fluctuated between 200,000 and 300,000 annually.
