UK government departments are at odds over the projected energy demands of artificial intelligence datacentres, raising questions about planning for net zero targets. The Department of Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) forecasts that AI datacentres will require at least 6GW of electricity capacity by 2030, while the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) appears to estimate less than a tenth of that amount.
Discrepancy in Forecasts
The disparity highlights a lack of coordination between the two departments responsible for the UK's decarbonisation and AI superpower ambitions. Tim Squirrell, head of strategy at NGO Foxglove, described the situation as alarming. Cecilia Rikap, a researcher at University College London, suggested the misalignment could indicate incompetence or undue corporate influence.
Environmental Impact Assessments
Foxglove filed an environmental impact assessment request with DESNZ in January, asking how AI datacentres were factored into emissions projections. DESNZ responded that it did not hold separate datacentre projections, instead referring to broader forecasts for the commercial services sector, which predict a 528MW increase in energy use between 2025 and 2030. This is roughly one-tenth of DSIT's AI datacentre capacity target.
Revised Emissions Figures
DSIT's original carbon emissions projections for AI datacentres were below 0.05% of Britain's projected emissions, but after scrutiny from Carbon Brief and the Guardian, DSIT revised its figures upward to between 34 and 123 MtCO₂ over ten years, representing 0.9-3.4% of projected total emissions. DSIT noted that grid decarbonisation could help reduce emissions toward the lower end of that range.
A DESNZ spokesperson stated that datacentre emissions are included in modelling for carbon budget 7, due this summer, and that the AI Energy Council is exploring clean power opportunities. DSIT referred inquiries to DESNZ. The conflicting forecasts underscore the challenge of balancing AI growth with climate commitments.
