Keir Starmer's Labour Party is on course for "historic losses" across its London heartlands, according to a major MRP poll by YouGov, as the Green Party makes significant inroads into its vote share just a fortnight before voters head to the polls.
Labour vote share down 16% since 2022
The survey, which polled over 4,500 adults in London, projects that Labour will maintain the highest vote share in only 15 councils, a drop of six compared to the 2022 borough elections. Across the capital, Labour's vote share stands at 26%, down 16% from the last local elections, while the Greens have surged to 22%. The Conservatives are on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 15%, and Reform UK on 14%.
Green Party breakthroughs in Labour strongholds
The left-wing Green Party, which currently controls no councils in the 32 London boroughs up for grabs on May 7, could emerge as the largest party in four local authorities: Hackney, Lambeth, Waltham Forest, and Lewisham. These are areas that Labour has held for decades. YouGov described the projections as a "seismic shift for local government in the capital, as well as historic losses for Labour."
Reform UK gains ground in suburban councils
Nigel Farage's Reform UK could also become the largest party on three suburban councils: Bromley, Havering, and Barking and Dagenham. The pollster warned that many boroughs are tightly contested, with multiple parties plausibly being victorious on election day.
National context and expert warnings
The London projections come as Keir Starmer braces for a bruising set of results across England, with experts warning Labour could lose "well over" 1,000 councillors on May 7. Crucial elections will also take place in Scotland and Wales, where Labour is struggling to hold on to power.
Sadiq Khan responds to Green protest vote
London Mayor Sadiq Khan acknowledged that Londoners are considering voting for all five parties, including the Greens and Reform. Asked about Labour voters switching to the Greens as a protest, Khan said: "Of course I can understand why people may lend their vote to somebody else. All I would say, in a respectful way, is public office isn't about protest, it's about service." He urged voters to consider the record of the last 20 months compared to the previous 14 years.
