Reform UK may have reached the upper limit of its potential popularity, according to a leading polling expert. Sir John Curtice, a prominent political scientist, has suggested that the party's recent surge in support could now be plateauing, with its voter base representing a very, very niche market.
Recent Polling Shows a Cooling of Support
Recent weeks have seen a noticeable cooling in backing for Nigel Farage's party. Current polling indicates that 29 per cent of voters would support Reform UK at the next general election. This marks a distinct drop from the party's peak of 32 per cent, which it achieved earlier in the year.
In contrast, the Conservative Party is experiencing a slight upward tick in the polls, with 19 per cent of respondents stating they would back them. This marginal gain comes despite a series of high-profile defections from the Tories to Reform UK over recent months.
Sir John Curtice's Analysis
Sir John Curtice has been analysing the data and posits that the 32 per cent figure likely represents the height of what Reform can achieve. He bases this on the composition of the party's support, which he describes as appealing to a specific, limited segment of the electorate.
Looking further ahead, Sir John also commented on the future dynamic between the two right-leaning parties. He suggested that by 2027 or 2028, both Reform UK and the Conservatives will need to assess whether one has succeeded in dominating the Right, or if it would be in their mutual interest to reach some form of electoral accommodation or pact.
Nigel Farage's Rebuttal
Nigel Farage, the honorary president of Reform UK, has robustly rejected Sir John's twin assertions. Mr Farage branded the expert wrong on both counts, disputing the idea that his party has peaked and dismissing the notion of a future pact with the Conservatives as a necessary consideration.
The debate raises a pivotal question for British politics: Can Reform UK's popularity grow further, or has it truly hit its ceiling? The Daily Mail is currently running a poll inviting readers to have their say on this and other pressing political issues.
Yesterday's Poll Results
In a separate poll published yesterday, Daily Mail readers were asked whether Sir Keir Starmer should take credit for Donald Trump dropping a threat of tariffs on Greenland. The results were overwhelmingly one-sided. Out of more than 11,000 votes cast, a decisive 92 per cent of respondents answered no, with only 8 per cent answering yes.
