Americans placed substantial wagers on the specific phrases President Donald Trump would incorporate into his 2026 State of the Union address, with prediction market Kalshi facilitating over $10 million in trades on the anticipated subjects. Users actively commented on the developments in real time via the platform's website, reflecting intense public interest in the political event.
High-Probability Phrases and Their Betting Odds
Bettors wagered there is a 96 percent likelihood that Trump will mention "250," a clear reference to the nation's upcoming 250th anniversary, highlighting a patriotic theme. Additionally, there is a 95 percent chance he will utter "Trillion," possibly in discussions about economic policies or government spending. The topic of AI or artificial intelligence also garnered significant attention, with a 92 percent probability of being brought up during the speech.
Sports and Extraterrestrial References
Following the US men's hockey team's recent gold medal victory at the Winter Olympics, bettors speculated that Trump is highly likely to discuss the Olympics, World Cup, and hockey. This anticipation was bolstered by Trump's meeting with the champions at the White House on Tuesday, just before his address. Moreover, the word "alien" has an 87 percent chance of being mentioned, likely tied to Trump's recent executive order to declassify government files on extraterrestrial life, adding a speculative twist to the predictions.
Lower-Probability Phrases
In contrast, phrases such as "Drill Baby Drill," "Sleepy Joe," and "Trump Derangement Syndrome" attracted lower betting interest, with less than a 50 percent chance of being cited. This indicates that while some classic Trump rhetoric remains in the public consciousness, bettors are focusing more on current events and specific anniversaries for this particular speech.
The full list of phrases with the highest betting odds underscores how prediction markets are increasingly used to gauge political discourse and public expectations, blending entertainment with financial speculation in the digital age.
